------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-repro
> duction\Personalism-Assassins.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  13 Apr 2021, 08:06:48

. 
.                 set more off 

.                 set matsize 1000

.                 set scheme plotplain

.                 global seed ="984353"

.                 
.                 *** Set globals ***
.                 global bw= 3

.                 global id = "cow"

.                 global id2 = "gwf_caseid"

.                 global id3 = "gwf_leaderid"

.                 global t= "time time2"

.                 global d= "xpers"

.                 global x= "G_age lt leadermil loggdp logoil intwar civwar"   

.                  
.                 *** Some basic descriptives ***
.                 use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                 sum assa

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      4,591     .022653    .1488109          0          1

.                 table coldwar,c(mean assa mean chcoup mean shcoup)

----------------------------------------------------
Cold War  |
period    |
(1946-198 |
9)        |   mean(assa)  mean(chcoup)  mean(shcoup)
----------+-----------------------------------------
        0 |     .0165826      .0237924      .0108147
        1 |     .0252809      .0496255      .0321473
----------------------------------------------------

.                 table leadermil,c(mean assa mean chcoup mean shcoup)

----------------------------------------------------
Military  |
leader    |   mean(assa)  mean(chcoup)  mean(shcoup)
----------+-----------------------------------------
        0 |     .0183089      .0326232      .0139814
        1 |     .0308759      .0592313      .0478891
----------------------------------------------------

. 
.                 *** Set panel data ***
.                 xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t cyrs*,nonpar($d)nograph

.                 egen cnt=count(year) if e(sample)==1,by(cow)

.                 tab cnt

        cnt |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          1 |          1        0.02        0.02
          7 |          7        0.15        0.17
          9 |          9        0.20        0.37
         11 |         11        0.24        0.61
         12 |         24        0.52        1.13
         14 |         28        0.61        1.74
         15 |         15        0.33        2.07
         16 |         48        1.05        3.11
         17 |         17        0.37        3.49
         18 |         18        0.39        3.88
         19 |        114        2.48        6.36
         20 |         40        0.87        7.23
         21 |         42        0.91        8.15
         22 |         22        0.48        8.63
         23 |         46        1.00        9.63
         25 |         25        0.54       10.17
         26 |         26        0.57       10.74
         28 |         56        1.22       11.96
         29 |         87        1.90       13.85
         30 |        120        2.61       16.47
         31 |         93        2.03       18.49
         34 |         68        1.48       19.97
         35 |        105        2.29       22.26
         36 |         36        0.78       23.05
         38 |        152        3.31       26.36
         39 |         78        1.70       28.05
         40 |         80        1.74       29.80
         41 |        123        2.68       32.48
         42 |        126        2.74       35.22
         43 |         43        0.94       36.16
         44 |        220        4.79       40.95
         45 |        180        3.92       44.87
         46 |        138        3.01       47.88
         47 |         47        1.02       48.90
         48 |        240        5.23       54.13
         49 |        196        4.27       58.40
         50 |        450        9.80       68.20
         51 |        102        2.22       70.42
         52 |         52        1.13       71.55
         53 |        106        2.31       73.86
         54 |        162        3.53       77.39
         55 |        110        2.40       79.79
         56 |         56        1.22       81.01
         57 |         57        1.24       82.25
         58 |        116        2.53       84.77
         59 |         59        1.29       86.06
         61 |         61        1.33       87.39
         62 |         62        1.35       88.74
         63 |         63        1.37       90.11
         64 |         64        1.39       91.51
         65 |        390        8.49      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      4,591      100.00

.                 *gen sample = e(sample)==1
.                 *recode sample (1=0) if cnt==1
.                 xtdescribe if sample==1

gwf_caseid:  1, 2, ..., 280                                  n =        279
    year:  1946, 1947, ..., 2010                             T =         65
           Delta(year) = 1 unit
           Span(year)  = 65 periods
           (gwf_caseid*year uniquely identifies each observation)

Distribution of T_i:   min      5%     25%       50%       75%     95%     max
                         1       1       4        11        24      50      65

     Freq.  Percent    Cum. |  Pattern
 ---------------------------+-------------------------------------------------------------------
        5      1.79    1.79 |  ..............................................1111111111111111111
        3      1.08    2.87 |  .................................................1111111111111111
        3      1.08    3.94 |  ................................................11111111111111111
        3      1.08    5.02 |  ..............................................1..................
        3      1.08    6.09 |  ..............................11111111111111111111111111111111111
        3      1.08    7.17 |  ...............111...............................................
        3      1.08    8.24 |  1................................................................
        2      0.72    8.96 |  ................................................................1
        2      0.72    9.68 |  ...............................................................11
      252     90.32  100.00 | (other patterns)
 ---------------------------+-------------------------------------------------------------------
      279    100.00         |  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t cyrs* $x if sample==1,nonpar($d)nograph

.                 *gen samplecov = e(sample)==1
.                 xtdescribe if samplecov==1

gwf_caseid:  1, 2, ..., 280                                  n =        275
    year:  1946, 1947, ..., 2010                             T =         65
           Delta(year) = 1 unit
           Span(year)  = 65 periods
           (gwf_caseid*year uniquely identifies each observation)

Distribution of T_i:   min      5%     25%       50%       75%     95%     max
                         1       1       4        11        24      49      64

     Freq.  Percent    Cum. |  Pattern
 ---------------------------+-------------------------------------------------------------------
        5      1.82    1.82 |  ..............................................1111111111111111111
        3      1.09    2.91 |  .................................................1111111111111111
        3      1.09    4.00 |  ................................................11111111111111111
        3      1.09    5.09 |  ..............................................1..................
        3      1.09    6.18 |  ..............................11111111111111111111111111111111111
        3      1.09    7.27 |  ...............111...............................................
        3      1.09    8.36 |  .1...............................................................
        2      0.73    9.09 |  ................................................................1
        2      0.73    9.82 |  ...............................................................11
      248     90.18  100.00 | (other patterns)
 ---------------------------+-------------------------------------------------------------------
      275    100.00         |  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

.                 label var lt "Leader time (log)"

.                 label var G_age "Leader age"

.                 label var leadermil "Military leader"

.                 label var loggdp "GDP pc (log)"

.                 label var logoil "Oil rents pc (log)"

.                 label var civwar "Civil conflict"

.                 label var intwar "Int'l conflict"

.                 label var assa "Assassination"

.                 label var chcoup "Regime change coup attempt"

.                 label var shcoup "Reshuffling coup attempt"

.                 label var ayrs "Time since assassination"

.                 label var cyrs "Time since coups"

.                 label var xpers "Personalism"

.                 label var support "Support party"

.                 sort cowcode year

.                 
.                 *** Summary statistics ***
.                 sutex shcoup chcoup assa cyrs ayrs lt G_age ///
>                         leadermil loggdp logoil civwar intwar xpers year ///
>                         if samplecov==1,minmax labels file($dir/Sumstats.tex) replace
(note: file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reprod
> uction/Sumstats.tex not found)
file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction/
> Sumstats.tex saved

.                 egen tag =tag(gwf_caseid) if samplecov==1

.                 egen max =max(year) if samplecov==1,by(gwf_caseid)
(120 missing values generated)

.                 egen min=min(year) if samplecov==1,by(gwf_caseid)
(120 missing values generated)

.                 sort gwf_country year

.                 *listtex gwf_casename min max if tag==1 using regimeslist.tex, rstyle(tabular) ///
>                 *       head("\begin{tabular}{l c c c}"" \textit{Regime-case} & \textit{Begin year} 
> & \textit{End year}") ///
>                 *       foot("\end{tabular}") replace
.                 drop tag max min cnt

.                         
.                 *************************
.                 *** Reported analysis *** FE semiparametric per Baltagi and Li 2002
.                 *************************
.                 use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                 centile xpers,centile(33.3 66.7)

                                                       -- Binom. Interp. --
    Variable |       Obs  Percentile    Centile        [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+-------------------------------------------------------------
       xpers |     4,591       33.3    .2566351        .2513107    .3205568
             |                 66.7    .5427336        .5334169     .569478

.                 gen zper = xpers<=r(c_1) 

.                 replace zper =2 if xpers>r(c_1)  & xpers<=r(c_2) 
(1,554 real changes made)

.                 replace zper =3 if xpers>=r(c_2)
(1,530 real changes made)

.                 label define fl   1 "Low" 2 "Middle" 3 "High",replace

.                 label val zper fl

.                         *** TABLE 1 ***
.                 table zper,c(n xpers mean xpers mean shcoup mean chcoup mean assa) format(%9.4f)  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     zper |     N(xpers)   mean(xpers)  mean(shcoup)  mean(chcoup)    mean(assa)
----------+---------------------------------------------------------------------
      Low |        1,530        0.1046        0.0438        0.0418        0.0209
   Middle |        1,531        0.4278        0.0222        0.0457        0.0196
     High |        1,530        0.7315        0.0111        0.0379        0.0275
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                 table zper,c(mean xpers mean shcoup mean chcoup mean assa) format(%9.4f)  

------------------------------------------------------------------
     zper |  mean(xpers)  mean(shcoup)  mean(chcoup)    mean(assa)
----------+-------------------------------------------------------
      Low |       0.1046        0.0438        0.0418        0.0209
   Middle |       0.4278        0.0222        0.0457        0.0196
     High |       0.7315        0.0111        0.0379        0.0275
------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
.                 **********************
.                 ** Degree selection **
.                 **********************
.                 use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                 xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                 global y= "assa"

.                 local j=1

.                 forval i =1/6 {
  2.                         xi:qui xtsemipar $y $t ayrs*,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)  deg(`i') spline  ge
> n(fA`j' rA`j')  nograph
  3.                         di `i' 
  4.                         di e(rmse)
  5.                         di e(ll)
  6.                         local j=`j'+1
  7.                 }
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
1
.16198067
1733.1777
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
2
.16199759
1733.2282
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
3
.16199053
1733.917
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
4
.16200938
1733.9163
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
5
.16200049
1734.654
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
6
.16201615
1734.7385

.                  twoway (lowess fA1 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(red*0.85)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA2 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(red*0.85)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA3 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(red*0.85)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA4 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(red*0.85)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA5 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(blue)lpat(solid
> )) ///
>                                 (lowess fA6 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event) saving(d1.gph,repl
> ace)   ///
>                                 tit(Assassinations)legend(lab(1 "degree 1")lab(2 "degree 2") ///
>                                 lab(3 "degree 3")lab(4 "degree 4")lab(5 "degree 5")lab(6 "degree 6")
> pos(10)ring(0)))     
(note: file d1.gph not found)
(file d1.gph saved)

.                 use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                 xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                 global y= "chcoup"

.                 local j=1

.                 forval i =1/6 {
  2.                         xi:qui xtsemipar $y $t cyrs*,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)  deg(`i') spline  ge
> n(fA`j' rA`j')  nograph
  3.                         di `i' 
  4.                         di e(rmse)
  5.                         di e(ll)
  6.                         local j=`j'+1
  7.                 }
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
1
.21993684
414.60064
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
2
.21984578
416.88655
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
3
.2197614
419.04227
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
4
.21973932
419.9766
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
5
.2196875
421.49446
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
6
.21971712
421.41431

.                  twoway (lowess fA1 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(red*0.85)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA2 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(red*0.85)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA3 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(blue)lpat(solid
> )) ///
>                                 (lowess fA4 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA5 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)saving(d2.gph,repla
> ce)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA6 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)   ///
>                                 tit(Regime change coups)legend(lab(1 "degree 1")lab(2 "degree 2") //
> /
>                                 lab(3 "degree 3")lab(4 "degree 4")lab(5 "degree 5")lab(6 "degree 6")
> pos(7)ring(0)))             
(note: file d2.gph not found)
(file d2.gph saved)

.                 use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                 xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                 global y= "shcoup"

.                 local j=1

.                 forval i =1/6 {
  2.                         xi:qui xtsemipar $y $t cyrs*,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)  deg(`i') spline  ge
> n(fA`j' rA`j')   nograph
  3.                         di `i' 
  4.                         di e(rmse)
  5.                         di e(ll)
  6.                         local j=`j'+1
  7.                 }
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
1
.18542232
1150.5072
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
2
.18544359
1150.5134
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
3
.18529803
1154.3994
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
4
.18526826
1155.5931
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
5
.18527165
1156.0153
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
6
.1852316
1157.4486

.                  twoway (lowess fA1 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(red*0.85)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA2 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(red*0.85)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA3 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)col(blue)lpat(solid
> )) ///
>                                 (lowess fA4 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA5 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)saving(d3.gph,repla
> ce)) ///
>                                 (lowess fA6 xpers,sort ytit(Probability of event)   ///
>                                 tit(Reshuffling coups)legend(lab(1 "degree 1")lab(2 "degree 2") ///
>                                 lab(3 "degree 3")lab(4 "degree 4")lab(5 "degree 5")lab(6 "degree 6")
> pos(7)ring(0)))                     
(note: file d3.gph not found)
(file d3.gph saved)

.                 gr combine d1.gph d2.gph d3.gph,col(3) xsize(12)

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-E-1.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-1.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 
.                 ******************
.                 * Assassinations *
.                 ******************
.                         ****************************
.                         * Semi-parametric analysis *
.                         ****************************
.                         use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                         xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                         global deg = 5

.                         global y= "assa"

.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t ayrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(fA rA)deg($
> deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3729
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3715
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1620
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0580836   .0058218    -9.98   0.000     -.069524   -.0466432
       time2 |   .0004521   .0000722     6.27   0.000     .0003103    .0005939
        ayrs |   .1248628   .0069914    17.86   0.000      .111124    .1386017
       ayrs2 |  -.0043717   .0003954   -11.06   0.000    -.0051488   -.0035946
       ayrs3 |   .0000483   5.61e-06     8.62   0.000     .0000373    .0000593
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t ayrs* if sample==1 & xpers>0,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f
> A1 rA1)deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    3650
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3647
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3629
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1645
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   -.056458    .005601   -10.08   0.000    -.0674735   -.0454424
       time2 |   .0004294   .0000707     6.07   0.000     .0002902    .0005685
        ayrs |   .1260813   .0078334    16.10   0.000     .1106752    .1414874
       ayrs2 |  -.0044714   .0004523    -9.89   0.000    -.0053609   -.0035819
       ayrs3 |   .0000502   6.56e-06     7.65   0.000     .0000373    .0000631
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(941 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t ayrs* if sample==1 & xpers<1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f
> A2 rA2)deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4160
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3783
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3768
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1605
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0583742   .0059624    -9.79   0.000     -.070091   -.0466574
       time2 |    .000463   .0000754     6.14   0.000     .0003147    .0006112
        ayrs |   .1260111   .0072249    17.44   0.000     .1118135    .1402087
       ayrs2 |  -.0044191   .0004055   -10.90   0.000     -.005216   -.0036221
       ayrs3 |   .0000487   5.73e-06     8.50   0.000     .0000374    .0000599
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(431 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t $x ayrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3) gen(fB rB)d
> eg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3802
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3777
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1621
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0571658   .0060993    -9.37   0.000    -.0691525   -.0451791
       time2 |   .0004445   .0000747     5.95   0.000     .0002977    .0005912
       G_age |   .0007713   .0010361     0.74   0.457    -.0012649    .0028074
          lt |  -.0025039   .0058609    -0.43   0.669    -.0140221    .0090142
   leadermil |   .0128895   .0112825     1.14   0.254    -.0092835    .0350625
      loggdp |   .0190714   .0341536     0.56   0.577    -.0480495    .0861922
      logoil |  -.0936991   .0586441    -1.60   0.111    -.2089501    .0215519
      intwar |   .0980988   .0389553     2.52   0.012     .0215415    .1746562
      civwar |   .0263453   .0247072     1.07   0.287    -.0222108    .0749015
        ayrs |   .1262065   .0069572    18.14   0.000     .1125338    .1398791
       ayrs2 |  -.0044317   .0003917   -11.31   0.000    -.0052015   -.0036619
       ayrs3 |   .0000486   5.54e-06     8.78   0.000     .0000378    .0000595
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t $x ayrs* if sample==1 & xpers>0.15,nonpar($d)cluster($id3
> ) gen(fB1 rB1)deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    3500
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3691
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3660
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1654
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0530712   .0062664    -8.47   0.000    -.0653982   -.0407443
       time2 |   .0004097   .0000763     5.37   0.000     .0002595    .0005598
       G_age |   .0018321   .0008563     2.14   0.033     .0001477    .0035166
          lt |  -.0133362   .0068204    -1.96   0.051    -.0267531    .0000806
   leadermil |   .0072582   .0169086     0.43   0.668    -.0260038    .0405202
      loggdp |  -.0136228   .0371951    -0.37   0.714    -.0867914    .0595457
      logoil |  -.0339406   .0320331    -1.06   0.290    -.0969547    .0290734
      intwar |    .116703   .0449323     2.60   0.010     .0283142    .2050918
      civwar |   .0344378   .0302795     1.14   0.256    -.0251266    .0940022
        ayrs |   .1291755   .0079125    16.33   0.000     .1136104    .1447405
       ayrs2 |  -.0046295   .0004526   -10.23   0.000    -.0055198   -.0037391
       ayrs3 |   .0000517   6.56e-06     7.87   0.000     .0000388    .0000646
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1,091 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t $x ayrs* if sample==1 & xpers<1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3) g
> en(fB2 rB2)deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4044
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3860
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3834
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1605
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0567387   .0063014    -9.00   0.000    -.0691225   -.0443548
       time2 |   .0004514   .0000781     5.78   0.000      .000298    .0006049
       G_age |   .0008187   .0010381     0.79   0.431    -.0012214    .0028589
          lt |  -.0029036   .0059183    -0.49   0.624    -.0145348    .0087275
   leadermil |     .01148   .0111974     1.03   0.306     -.010526    .0334861
      loggdp |   .0012287   .0290299     0.04   0.966    -.0558229    .0582804
      logoil |  -.0911357   .0592926    -1.54   0.125    -.2076618    .0253905
      intwar |   .0990956   .0401468     2.47   0.014     .0201962    .1779951
      civwar |   .0269859   .0253625     1.06   0.288    -.0228584    .0768302
        ayrs |   .1274947   .0071831    17.75   0.000      .113378    .1416115
       ayrs2 |  -.0044867   .0004013   -11.18   0.000    -.0052755    -.003698
       ayrs3 |   .0000491   5.65e-06     8.69   0.000      .000038    .0000602
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(547 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.          
.                                         **********************************************************
.                                         *** Rescale predicted values/residuals from LMP to 0,1 ***
.                                         **********************************************************
.                                                 qui sum assa

.                                                 global amean=r(mean)

.                                                 local var ="fA rA fA1 rA1 fA2 rA2 fB rB fB1 rB1 fB2 
> rB2"

.                                                 foreach v of local var {
  2.                                                         replace `v'=invlogit(`v')
  3.                                                         qui sum `v'
  4.                                                         replace `v'=`v'-r(mean)+$amean
  5.                                                 }
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,567 real changes made)
(4,567 real changes made)
(3,650 real changes made)
(3,650 real changes made)
(3,835 real changes made)
(3,835 real changes made)
(4,160 real changes made)
(4,160 real changes made)
(4,416 real changes made)
(4,416 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(3,500 real changes made)
(3,500 real changes made)
(3,676 real changes made)
(3,676 real changes made)
(4,044 real changes made)
(4,044 real changes made)
(4,301 real changes made)
(4,301 real changes made)

.  
.                         twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)
> ylab(0(0)0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                                 (line fA xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(range(-0.06 .0
> 2)alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                                 (line fA1 xpers,lcol(cyan)lpat(dash)sort ylab(0(.01)0.03)lpat(solid)
> title(No covariate adjustment) ) ///
>                                 (line fA2 xpers,lcol(red)lpat(dash)sort xtit("")ytit("Probability of
>  assassination" "(partial)",height(0)) saving(fit1A.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(2 "All values")lab(3 "Exclude lowest")lab(4 "Exclude high
> est")order(2 3 4)pos(3)ring(0)))
(note: file fit1A.gph not found)
(file fit1A.gph saved)

.                                 
.                         twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)
> ylab(0(0)0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                                 (line fB xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))so
> rt) ///
>                                 (line fB1 xpers,lcol(cyan)lpat(dash)sort ylab(0(0.01)0.03)lpat(solid
> )title(Covariate adjustment) ) ///
>                                 (line fB2 xpers,lcol(red)lpat(dash)sort ytit("")xtit("")  /// 
>                                 saving(fit2A.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(2 "All values")lab(3 "Exclude lowest")lab(4 "Exclude high
> est")order(2 3 4)pos(3)ring(0)))
(note: file fit2A.gph not found)
(file fit2A.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fit1A.gph fit2A.gph,xsize(8) title(Assassinations,size(large))nam
> e("assa", replace)cols(2)  

.                         
.                         ************************************** 
.                         * Two lines test: for Assassinations *
.                         ************************************** 
.                         tsset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         global xc = 0.13

.                         qui gen xlow1 = xpers-$xc if xpers<=$xc

.                         qui replace xlow1=0 if xpers>$xc

.                         qui gen xhigh1 =  xpers-$xc if xpers>$xc 

.                         qui replace xhigh1=0 if xpers<=$xc 

.                         qui gen hi1 = xpers>$xc         

.                         qui gen xlow2=xpers-$xc if xpers<$xc

.                         qui replace xlow2=0 if xpers>=$xc

.                         qui gen xhigh2=xpers-$xc if xpers>=$xc

.                         qui replace xhigh2=0 if xpers<$xc

.                         qui gen hi2 = xpers>=$xc

.                         gen x1=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen x2=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen y1=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen y2=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.         
.                         * No covariate adjustment, xmax=1 *
.                         global xmax=1

.                         tsset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe assa ayrs* xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2) cl
> uster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow1==0

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    2.08
            Prob > F =    0.1543

.                         test xhigh1=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh1 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    1.10
            Prob > F =    0.3404

.                         margins,dydx(xlow1)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,567
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xlow1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xlow1 |  -.2182685   .1514259    -1.44   0.149    -.5150578    .0785207
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.00563245

.                         nlcom _b[xlow1]*$xc, post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xlow1]*.13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |  -.0283749   .0196854    -1.44   0.149    -.0669575    .0102077
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
-.02837491

.                         replace x1=0 if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace x1=$xc if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y1=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y1=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         qui reghdfe assa ayrs* xlow2 xhigh2 hi2 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2) cl
> uster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow2==0

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    2.08
            Prob > F =    0.1543

.                         test xhigh2=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh2 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    1.10
            Prob > F =    0.3404

.                         margins,dydx(xhigh2)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,567
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xhigh2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      xhigh2 |   .0036511   .0209026     0.17   0.861    -.0373173    .0446195
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.00563245

.                         nlcom _b[xhigh2]*($xmax-$xc), post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xhigh2]*(1-.13)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |   .0031764   .0181853     0.17   0.861    -.0324661     .038819
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
.00317644

.                         replace x2=$xc   if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace x2=$xmax if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         replace y1=y1+($amean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         replace y2=y2+($amean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fA xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)sort) ///
>                                 (line y1 x1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit(Probability of assassinati
> on) ///
>                                 xtit("")saving(fitT1A.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit-1") lab(3 "Linear fi
> t-2")order(1 2 3)col(1)ring(0)pos(5)) ///
>                                 tit("All values of personalism") ) ///
>                                 (line y2 x2,ylab(0(.01).03)lcol(red*1.1)lpat(solid) ///
>                                 text(0.021 0.12  "{&beta}=-0.218" "p<0.154" ,size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.015 0.55 "{&beta}=0.004" "p<0.861",size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.010 0.4 "Joint test:" "p<0.340",size(small)))
(note: file fitT1A.gph not found)
(file fitT1A.gph saved)

.                         * No covariate adjustment, xmax=0.67 *
.                         global xmax=.67

.                         tsset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe assa ayrs* xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2) cl
> uster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow1==0

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    2.17
            Prob > F =    0.1459

.                         test xhigh1=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh1 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    3.98
            Prob > F =    0.0235

.                         margins,dydx(xlow1)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      3,727
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xlow1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xlow1 |  -.2342383   .1591178    -1.47   0.141    -.5461035    .0776269
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.0054265

.                         nlcom _b[xlow1]*$xc, post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xlow1]*.13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |   -.030451   .0206853    -1.47   0.141    -.0709935    .0100915
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
-.03045097

.                         replace x1=0 if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x1=$xc if _n==2
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace y1=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y1=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         qui reghdfe assa ayrs* xlow2 xhigh2 hi2 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2) cl
> uster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow2==0

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    2.17
            Prob > F =    0.1459

.                         test xhigh2=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh2 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    3.98
            Prob > F =    0.0235

.                         margins,dydx(xhigh2)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      3,727
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xhigh2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      xhigh2 |    .062295    .028516     2.18   0.029     .0064047    .1181853
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.0054265

.                         nlcom _b[xhigh2]*($xmax-$xc), post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xhigh2]*(.67-.13)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |   .0336393   .0153986     2.18   0.029     .0034585      .06382
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
.03363929

.                         replace x2=$xc   if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x2=$xmax if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         replace y1=y1+($amean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         replace y2=y2+($amean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fA xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)sort   ) ///
>                                 (line y1 x1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit("") ///
>                                 xtit("")saving(fitT2A.gph,replace) legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab
> (2 "Linear fit-1") ///
>                                 lab(3 "Linear fit-2")order(1 2 3)col(1)ring(0)pos(5)) tit("Personali
> sm <= 0.67")) ///
>                                 (line y2 x2,ylab(0(.01).03)lcol(red*1.1)lpat(solid) ///
>                                 text(0.021 0.115  "{&beta}=-0.234" "p<0.141" ,size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.018 0.5 "{&beta}=0.062" "p<0.029",size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.007 0.45 "Joint test:" "p<0.024",size(small))) 
(note: file fitT2A.gph not found)
(file fitT2A.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fitT1A.gph fitT2A.gph,xsize(8) title(Assassinations,size(large))n
> ame("assaT", replace)cols(2) 

.                         
.                         * With covariate adjustment, xmax=1 *
.                         global xmax=1

.                         tsset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe assa ayrs* $x xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2)
>  cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow1==0

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    2.22
            Prob > F =    0.1415

.                         test xhigh1=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh1 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    1.11
            Prob > F =    0.3356

.                         margins,dydx(xlow1)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,449
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xlow1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xlow1 |  -.2506991   .1684027    -1.49   0.137    -.5807624    .0793642
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 
(119 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5
(119 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.00572434

.                         nlcom _b[xlow1]*$xc, post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xlow1]*.13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |  -.0325909   .0218924    -1.49   0.137    -.0754991    .0103173
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
-.03259088

.                         replace x1=0 if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x1=$xc if _n==2
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace y1=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y1=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         qui reghdfe assa ayrs* $x xlow2 xhigh2 hi2 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2)
>  cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow2==0

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    2.22
            Prob > F =    0.1415

.                         test xhigh2=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh2 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    1.11
            Prob > F =    0.3356

.                         margins,dydx(xhigh2)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,449
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xhigh2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      xhigh2 |  -.0062214    .021439    -0.29   0.772    -.0482412    .0357983
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 
(119 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5
(119 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.00572434

.                         nlcom _b[xhigh2]*($xmax-$xc), post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xhigh2]*(1-.13)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |  -.0054126    .018652    -0.29   0.772    -.0419698    .0311445
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
-.00541265

.                         replace x2=$xc   if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x2=$xmax if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         replace y1=y1+($amean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         replace y2=y2+($amean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fA xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)sort  ) ///
>                                 (line y1 x1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit(Predicted probability of a
> ssassination) ///
>                                 xtit(Personalism)saving(fit1.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit-1") lab(3 "Linear fi
> t-2")order(1 2 3)col(1)ring(0)pos(5)) ///
>                                 tit("All values of personalism") ) ///
>                                 (line y2 x2,ylab(0(.01).03)lcol(red*1.1)lpat(solid) ///
>                                 text(0.025 0.1   "{&beta}=-0.251" "p<0.137" ,size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.015 0.45 "{&beta}=-0.006" "p<0.772",size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.005 0.5 "Joint test: p<0.336",size(small)))
(note: file fit1.gph not found)
(file fit1.gph saved)

.                         * With covariate adjustment, xmax=0.67 *
.                         global xmax=.67

.                         tsset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe assa ayrs* $x xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2)
>  cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow1==0

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    1.88
            Prob > F =    0.1748

.                         test xhigh1=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh1 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    4.24
            Prob > F =    0.0186

.                         margins,dydx(xlow1)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      3,612
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xlow1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xlow1 |  -.2542935   .1853082    -1.37   0.170    -.6174909    .1089038
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 
(119 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5
(119 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.00552865

.                         nlcom _b[xlow1]*$xc, post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xlow1]*.13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |  -.0330582   .0240901    -1.37   0.170    -.0802738    .0141575
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
-.03305816

.                         replace x1=0 if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x1=$xc if _n==2
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace y1=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y1=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         qui reghdfe assa ayrs* $x xlow2 xhigh2 hi2 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2)
>  cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow2==0

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    1.88
            Prob > F =    0.1748

.                         test xhigh2=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh2 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    4.24
            Prob > F =    0.0186

.                         margins,dydx(xhigh2)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      3,612
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xhigh2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      xhigh2 |   .0665725   .0283182     2.35   0.019     .0110699    .1220751
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 
(119 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5
(119 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.00552865

.                         nlcom _b[xhigh2]*($xmax-$xc), post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xhigh2]*(.67-.13)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |   .0359492   .0152918     2.35   0.019     .0059777    .0659206
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
.03594915

.                         replace x2=$xc   if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x2=$xmax if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         replace y1=y1+($amean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         replace y2=y2+($amean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fA xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)sort  ) ///
>                                 (line y1 x1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit(Predicted probability of a
> ssassination) ///
>                                 xtit(Personalism)saving(fit2.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit-1") lab(3 "Linear fi
> t-2")order(1 2 3)col(1)ring(0)pos(5)) ///
>                                 tit("Personalism <= 0.67") ) ///
>                                 (line y2 x2,ylab(0(.01).03)lcol(red*1.1)lpat(solid) ///
>                                 text(0.025 0.1  "{&beta}=-0.254" "p<0.170" ,size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.02 0.53 "{&beta}=0.067" "p<0.019",size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.005 0.5 "Joint test: p<0.019",size(small))) 
(note: file fit2.gph not found)
(file fit2.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fit1.gph fit2.gph, xsize(8) title(Assassinations,size(large)) ///
>                                 name("assaTC",replace)cols(2)  

.                         
.                         
.                 ***********************
.                 * Regime change coups *
.                 ***********************
.                         * Semiparametric *
.                         use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                         xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                         global y= "chcoup"

.                         global deg=3

.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t cyrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(fA rA)deg($
> deg) nogr spline   

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0805
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0788
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2198
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0089086   .0077548     1.15   0.251    -.0063305    .0241476
       time2 |  -.0000555   .0000896    -0.62   0.536    -.0002315    .0001205
        cyrs |   .0663425   .0092873     7.14   0.000      .048092     .084593
       cyrs2 |  -.0028897   .0005187    -5.57   0.000    -.0039091   -.0018704
       cyrs3 |   .0000326   7.16e-06     4.55   0.000     .0000185    .0000466
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t cyrs* if sample==1 & xpers>0,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f
> A1 rA1)deg($deg) nogr spline  

                                                Number of obs        =    3650
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0955
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0935
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2251
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0008798   .0086329     0.10   0.919    -.0160987    .0178583
       time2 |  -6.78e-07   .0000995    -0.01   0.995    -.0001963     .000195
        cyrs |   .0755293   .0107279     7.04   0.000     .0544304    .0966281
       cyrs2 |  -.0032149    .000604    -5.32   0.000    -.0044028    -.002027
       cyrs3 |   .0000366   8.42e-06     4.35   0.000     .0000201    .0000532
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(941 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t cyrs* if sample==1 & xpers<1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f
> A2 rA2)deg($deg) nogr spline  

                                                Number of obs        =    4160
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0734
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0716
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2196
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0106772   .0077744     1.37   0.170    -.0046002    .0259547
       time2 |  -.0000742   .0000915    -0.81   0.418     -.000254    .0001056
        cyrs |   .0649706   .0095305     6.82   0.000     .0462423     .083699
       cyrs2 |  -.0029281   .0005422    -5.40   0.000    -.0039935   -.0018627
       cyrs3 |   .0000338   7.54e-06     4.49   0.000      .000019    .0000486
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(431 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t $x cyrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3) gen(fB rB)d
> eg($deg)nogr spline  

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0887
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0854
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2201
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0101153   .0080908     1.25   0.212    -.0057853    .0260159
       time2 |  -.0000666     .00009    -0.74   0.460    -.0002435    .0001103
       G_age |    .003525   .0020036     1.76   0.079    -.0004125    .0074625
          lt |  -.0301286   .0127469    -2.36   0.019    -.0551797   -.0050776
   leadermil |  -.0973234   .0549389    -1.77   0.077    -.2052928    .0106459
      loggdp |  -.0241808   .0409247    -0.59   0.555    -.1046084    .0562469
      logoil |  -.0155268   .0294442    -0.53   0.598    -.0733924    .0423388
      intwar |   .0835472   .0408697     2.04   0.042     .0032275    .1638668
      civwar |  -.0083455   .0318522    -0.26   0.793    -.0709434    .0542523
        cyrs |   .0700546   .0096094     7.29   0.000     .0511697    .0889395
       cyrs2 |  -.0030398   .0005304    -5.73   0.000    -.0040821   -.0019974
       cyrs3 |   .0000344   7.26e-06     4.73   0.000     .0000201    .0000486
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t $x cyrs* if sample==1 & xpers>0,nonpar($d)cluster($id3) g
> en(fB1 rB1)deg($deg)nogr spline  

                                                Number of obs        =    3596
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1043
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1006
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2242
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0013245   .0090553     0.15   0.884    -.0164853    .0191343
       time2 |   3.44e-07   .0000993     0.00   0.997     -.000195    .0001957
       G_age |   .0049856   .0026006     1.92   0.056    -.0001293    .0101005
          lt |  -.0379238   .0173098    -2.19   0.029    -.0719683   -.0038792
   leadermil |  -.1321736   .0713014    -1.85   0.065    -.2724081    .0080609
      loggdp |  -.0233612   .0427465    -0.55   0.585    -.1074343    .0607119
      logoil |   .0061525   .0314115     0.20   0.845    -.0556272    .0679322
      intwar |   .0932827   .0449708     2.07   0.039     .0048349    .1817306
      civwar |  -.0108811   .0356964    -0.30   0.761    -.0810883     .059326
        cyrs |   .0787286   .0110338     7.14   0.000     .0570275    .1004296
       cyrs2 |  -.0033608   .0006213    -5.41   0.000    -.0045829   -.0021388
       cyrs3 |   .0000386   8.59e-06     4.49   0.000     .0000217    .0000555
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(995 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t $x cyrs* if sample==1 & xpers<1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3) g
> en(fB2 rB2)deg($deg)nogr spline  

                                                Number of obs        =    4044
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0815
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0781
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2198
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0115557   .0081719     1.41   0.158    -.0045043    .0276157
       time2 |  -.0000816   .0000925    -0.88   0.378    -.0002634    .0001001
       G_age |   .0036644   .0019908     1.84   0.066    -.0002481    .0075769
          lt |  -.0288427   .0126662    -2.28   0.023    -.0537353   -.0039501
   leadermil |  -.0955644   .0547221    -1.75   0.081    -.2031082    .0119795
      loggdp |  -.0196458   .0420746    -0.47   0.641    -.1023339    .0630423
      logoil |  -.0204885   .0295528    -0.69   0.488    -.0785678    .0375908
      intwar |   .0860927   .0426312     2.02   0.044     .0023106    .1698747
      civwar |  -.0079781    .032828    -0.24   0.808    -.0724941    .0565379
        cyrs |   .0686129   .0098834     6.94   0.000     .0491893    .0880365
       cyrs2 |  -.0030793   .0005546    -5.55   0.000    -.0041693   -.0019893
       cyrs3 |   .0000356   7.66e-06     4.65   0.000     .0000206    .0000507
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(547 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         
.                                         **********************************************************
.                                         *** Rescale predicted values/residuals from LMP to 0,1 ***
.                                         **********************************************************
.                                                 qui sum $y

.                                                 global chmean=r(mean)

.                                                 local var ="fA rA fA1 rA1 fA2 rA2 fB rB fB1 rB1 fB2 
> rB2"

.                                                 foreach v of local var {
  2.                                                         replace `v'=invlogit(`v')
  3.                                                         qui sum `v'
  4.                                                         replace `v'=`v'-r(mean)+$chmean
  5.                                                 }
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,567 real changes made)
(4,567 real changes made)
(3,650 real changes made)
(3,650 real changes made)
(3,835 real changes made)
(3,835 real changes made)
(4,160 real changes made)
(4,160 real changes made)
(4,416 real changes made)
(4,416 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(3,596 real changes made)
(3,596 real changes made)
(3,784 real changes made)
(3,784 real changes made)
(4,044 real changes made)
(4,044 real changes made)
(4,301 real changes made)
(4,301 real changes made)

.                                                 
.                         twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)
> ylab(0(0)0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                                 (line fA xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)sort yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(
> 2))title(No covariate adjustment)) ///
>                                 (line fA1 xpers,lcol(cyan)lpat(dash)sort  ///
>                                 xtit("")saving(fit1CH.gph,replace) yscale(range(0 .00))ylab(0(.02).0
> 6)) ///
>                                 (line fA2 xpers,lcol(red)lpat(dash)sort xtit("")ytit("Probability of
>  regime change coup" "(partial)",height(3)) ///
>                                 legend(lab(2 "All values")lab(3 "Exclude lowest")lab(4 "Exclude high
> est")order(2 3 4)pos(1)ring(0))) 
(note: file fit1CH.gph not found)
(file fit1CH.gph saved)

.                         twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)
> ylab(0(0)0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                                 (line fB xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)sort title(Covariate adjustment)
> ) ///
>                                 (line fB1 xpers,lcol(cyan)lpat(dash)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))so
> rt saving(fit2CH.gph,replace)) ///
>                                 (line fB2 xpers,lcol(red)lpat(dash)xtit("")ytit("")sort yscale(range
> (0 .00))ylab(0(.02).06) ///
>                                 legend(lab(2 "All values")lab(3 "Exclude lowest")lab(4 "Exclude high
> est")order(2 3 4)pos(1)ring(0)))
(note: file fit2CH.gph not found)
(file fit2CH.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fit1CH.gph fit2CH.gph,xsize(8) title(Regime change coups,size(lar
> ge))  name("chcoup", replace)cols(2) 

.                 
.                         ********************************************
.                         * Two lines tests: for Regime change coups *
.                         ********************************************
.                         tsset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         global xc = 0.413

.                         qui gen xlow1 = xpers-$xc if xpers<=$xc

.                         qui replace xlow1=0 if xpers>$xc

.                         qui gen xhigh1 =  xpers-$xc if xpers>$xc 

.                         qui replace xhigh1=0 if xpers<=$xc 

.                         qui gen hi1 = xpers>$xc         

.                         qui gen xlow2=xpers-$xc if xpers<$xc

.                         qui replace xlow2=0 if xpers>=$xc

.                         qui gen xhigh2=xpers-$xc if xpers>=$xc

.                         qui replace xhigh2=0 if xpers<$xc

.                         qui gen hi2 = xpers>=$xc

.                         gen x1=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen x2=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen y1=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen y2=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.         
.                         * No covariate adjustment, xmax=1 *
.                         global xmax=1

.                         tsset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs* xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2) 
> cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow1==0

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    5.72
            Prob > F =    0.0197

.                         test xhigh1=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh1 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    4.58
            Prob > F =    0.0139

.                         margins,dydx(xlow1)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,567
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xlow1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xlow1 |   .0976674   .0408203     2.39   0.017     .0176611    .1776737
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.00995869

.                         nlcom _b[xlow1]*$xc, post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xlow1]*.413

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |   .0403366   .0168588     2.39   0.017      .007294    .0733792
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
.04033664

.                         replace x1=0 if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace x1=$xc if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y1=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y1=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs* xlow2 xhigh2 hi2 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2) 
> cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow2==0

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    5.72
            Prob > F =    0.0197

.                         test xhigh2=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh2 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    4.58
            Prob > F =    0.0139

.                         margins,dydx(xhigh2)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,567
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xhigh2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      xhigh2 |  -.0695659   .0381923    -1.82   0.069    -.1444215    .0052897
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.00995869

.                         nlcom _b[xhigh2]*($xmax-$xc), post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xhigh2]*(1-.413)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |  -.0408352   .0224189    -1.82   0.069    -.0847754    .0031051
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
-.04083519

.                         replace x2=$xc   if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace x2=$xmax if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         replace y1=y1+($chmean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         replace y2=y2+($chmean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fA xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)sort ) ///
>                                 (line y1 x1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit(Probability of regime chan
> ge coup) ///
>                                 xtit("")saving(fitT1CH.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit-1") lab(3 "Linear fi
> t-2") ///
>                                 order(1 2 3)col(3)ring(0)pos(6)) ///
>                                 tit("All values of personalism") ) ///
>                                 (line y2 x2,ylab(0(.02).06)lcol(red*1.1)lpat(solid) ///
>                                 text(0.018 0.14  "{&beta}=0.098" "p<0.017" ,size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.024 0.68 "{&beta}=-0.070" "p<0.069",size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.009 0.45 "Joint test: p<0.014",size(small)))
(note: file fitT1CH.gph not found)
(file fitT1CH.gph saved)

.                         * No covariate adjustment, xmax=0.8 *
.                         global xmax=.8

.                         tsset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs* xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2) 
> cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow1==0

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    9.51
            Prob > F =    0.0030

.                         test xhigh1=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh1 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    7.82
            Prob > F =    0.0009

.                         margins,dydx(xlow1)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,133
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xlow1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xlow1 |   .1172542   .0380271     3.08   0.002     .0427225    .1917858
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.00973525

.                         nlcom _b[xlow1]*$xc, post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xlow1]*.413

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |    .048426   .0157052     3.08   0.002     .0176444    .0792076
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
.04842597

.                         replace x1=0 if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x1=$xc if _n==2
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace y1=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y1=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs* xlow2 xhigh2 hi2 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id2) 
> cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow2==0

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    9.51
            Prob > F =    0.0030

.                         test xhigh2=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh2 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    7.82
            Prob > F =    0.0009

.                         margins,dydx(xhigh2)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,133
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xhigh2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      xhigh2 |  -.1563972   .0768789    -2.03   0.042    -.3070771   -.0057173
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.00973525

.                         nlcom _b[xhigh2]*($xmax-$xc), post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xhigh2]*(.8-.413)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |  -.0605257   .0297521    -2.03   0.042    -.1188388   -.0022126
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
-.0605257

.                         replace x2=$xc   if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x2=$xmax if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         replace y1=y1+($chmean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         replace y2=y2+($chmean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fA xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)sort  ) ///
>                                 (line y1 x1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit("") ///
>                                 xtit("")saving(fitT2CH.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit-1") lab(3 "Linear fi
> t-2") ///
>                                 order(1 2 3)col(3)ring(0)pos(6)) ///
>                                 tit("Personalism <= 0.8") ) ///
>                                 (line y2 x2,ylab(0(.02).06)lcol(red*1.1)lpat(solid) ///
>                                 text(0.012 0.13  "{&beta}=0.117" "p<0.002" ,size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.012 0.85 "{&beta}=-0.156" "p<0.042",size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.012 0.45 "Joint test: p<0.001",size(small))) 
(note: file fitT2CH.gph not found)
(file fitT2CH.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fitT1CH.gph fitT2CH.gph,xsize(8) title(Regime change coups,size(l
> arge))  name("chcoupT", replace)cols(2) 

.                         
.                         * With covariate adjustment, xmax=1 *
.                         global xmax=1

.                         tsset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs* $x xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id
> 2) cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow1==0

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    8.40
            Prob > F =    0.0051

.                         test xhigh1=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh1 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    5.89
            Prob > F =    0.0045

.                         margins,dydx(xlow1)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,449
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xlow1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xlow1 |   .1234284   .0425915     2.90   0.004     .0399505    .2069063
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 
(119 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5
(119 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.01005281

.                         nlcom _b[xlow1]*$xc, post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xlow1]*.413

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |   .0509759   .0175903     2.90   0.004     .0164996    .0854523
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
.05097593

.                         replace x1=0 if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x1=$xc if _n==2
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace y1=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y1=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs* $x xlow2 xhigh2 hi2 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id
> 2) cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow2==0

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    8.40
            Prob > F =    0.0051

.                         test xhigh2=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh2 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    5.89
            Prob > F =    0.0045

.                         margins,dydx(xhigh2)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,449
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xhigh2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      xhigh2 |   -.073693   .0382447    -1.93   0.054    -.1486512    .0012652
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 
(119 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5
(119 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.01005281

.                         nlcom _b[xhigh2]*($xmax-$xc), post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xhigh2]*(1-.413)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |  -.0432578   .0224496    -1.93   0.054    -.0872583    .0007427
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
-.0432578

.                         replace x2=$xc   if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x2=$xmax if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         replace y1=y1+($chmean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         replace y2=y2+($chmean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fA xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)sort) ///
>                                 (line y1 x1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit(Predicted probability of r
> egime change coup) ///
>                                 xtit(Personalism)saving(fit1.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit-1") lab(3 "Linear fi
> t-2") ///
>                                 order(1 2 3)col(1)ring(0)pos(6)) tit("All values of personalism")) /
> //
>                                 (line y2 x2,ylab(0(.02).06)lcol(red*1.1)lpat(solid) ///
>                                 text(0.013 0.13  "{&beta}=0.123" "p<0.004" ,size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.018 0.72 "{&beta}=-0.074" "p<0.054",size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.05 0.8 "Joint test: p<0.005",size(small))) 
(file fit1.gph saved)

.                         * With covariate adjustment, xmax=0.9 *
.                         global xmax=.9

.                         tsset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs* $x xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id
> 2) cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow1==0

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    8.21
            Prob > F =    0.0056

.                         test xhigh1=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow1 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh1 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    4.89
            Prob > F =    0.0105

.                         margins,dydx(xlow1)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,299
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xlow1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xlow1 |   .1214187    .042366     2.87   0.004     .0383828    .2044545
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 
(119 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5
(119 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.01005509

.                         nlcom _b[xlow1]*$xc, post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xlow1]*.413

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |   .0501459   .0174972     2.87   0.004     .0158521    .0844397
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
.05014591

.                         replace x1=0 if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x1=$xc if _n==2
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace y1=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y1=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs* $x xlow2 xhigh2 hi2 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(year $id
> 2) cluster($id3 year) 

.                         test xlow2==0

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    8.21
            Prob > F =    0.0056

.                         test xhigh2=0,acc

 ( 1)  xlow2 = 0
 ( 2)  xhigh2 = 0

       F(  2,    64) =    4.89
            Prob > F =    0.0105

.                         margins,dydx(xhigh2)

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,299
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xhigh2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      xhigh2 |  -.0851188   .0490617    -1.73   0.083     -.181278    .0110403
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         predict xb,xb 
(119 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1  = invlogit(xb)-.5
(119 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum xb1 if e(sample)==1

.                         local m = r(mean)

.                         di `m'
.01005509

.                         nlcom _b[xhigh2]*($xmax-$xc), post 

       _nl_1:  _b[xhigh2]*(.9-.413)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _nl_1 |  -.0414529    .023893    -1.73   0.083    -.0882824    .0053766
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         mat b=e(b)

.                         local b = b[1,1]

.                         di `b'
-.04145288

.                         replace x2=$xc   if _n==1
(0 real changes made)

.                         replace x2=$xmax if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' - (`b'/2) if _n==1
(1 real change made)

.                         replace y2=`m' + (`b'/2) if _n==2
(1 real change made)

.                         drop xb*

.                         replace y1=y1+($chmean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         replace y2=y2+($chmean/2)
(2 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fA xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)sort  ) ///
>                                 (line y1 x1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit(Predicted probability of r
> egime change coup) ///
>                                 xtit(Personalism)saving(fit2.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit-1") lab(3 "Linear fi
> t-2") ///
>                                 order(1 2 3)col(1)ring(0)pos(6)) ///
>                                 tit("Personalism <= 0.8") ) ///
>                                 (line y2 x2,ylab(0(.02).06)lcol(red*1.1)lpat(solid) ///
>                                 text(0.013 0.13  "{&beta}=0.121" "p<0.004" ,size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.014 0.72 "{&beta}=-0.085" "p<0.083",size(small)) ///
>                                 text(0.05 0.8 "Joint test: p<0.011",size(small))) 
(file fit2.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fit1.gph fit2.gph, xsize(8) title(Regime change coups,size(large)
> ) ///
>                                 name("chcoupTC",replace)cols(2)  

.                 
.                 *********************
.                 * Reshuffling coups *
.                 *********************
.                         ******************
.                         * Semiparametric *
.                         ******************
.                         use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                         xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                         global y= "shcoup"

.                         global deg=3

.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t cyrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(fA rA)deg($
> deg) spline  knots1(.25 .6) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1835
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1820
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1853
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0345385    .007216    -4.79   0.000    -.0487185   -.0203584
       time2 |   .0001633   .0000776     2.10   0.036     .0000107    .0003158
        cyrs |   .0758858   .0083945     9.04   0.000     .0593897    .0923819
       cyrs2 |  -.0026624   .0004653    -5.72   0.000    -.0035767    -.001748
       cyrs3 |   .0000332   6.67e-06     4.98   0.000     .0000201    .0000463
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t cyrs* if sample==1 & xpers>0,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f
> A1 rA1)deg($deg) spline  knots1(.25 .6) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    3650
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1682
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1664
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1749
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   -.027282   .0079729    -3.42   0.001    -.0429626   -.0116014
       time2 |   .0001057   .0000849     1.24   0.214    -.0000614    .0002727
        cyrs |   .0690835   .0092916     7.44   0.000     .0508095    .0873576
       cyrs2 |  -.0025508   .0005238    -4.87   0.000     -.003581   -.0015206
       cyrs3 |   .0000339   7.77e-06     4.36   0.000     .0000186    .0000492
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(941 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t cyrs* if sample==1 & xpers<1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f
> A2 rA2)deg($deg) spline  knots1(.25 .6) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4160
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1914
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1898
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1862
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0357568   .0073291    -4.88   0.000    -.0501592   -.0213543
       time2 |   .0001606   .0000797     2.02   0.044     4.07e-06    .0003172
        cyrs |   .0787227   .0083321     9.45   0.000     .0623493     .095096
       cyrs2 |  -.0027089   .0004586    -5.91   0.000    -.0036102   -.0018076
       cyrs3 |   .0000331   6.56e-06     5.04   0.000     .0000202     .000046
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(431 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t $x cyrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3) gen(fB rB)d
> eg($deg) spline knots1(.25 .6) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1810
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1781
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1868
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0346159   .0077955    -4.44   0.000    -.0499362   -.0192956
       time2 |   .0001623   .0000816     1.99   0.047     1.88e-06    .0003228
       G_age |   .0001706   .0024201     0.07   0.944    -.0045855    .0049267
          lt |   .0185224    .013831     1.34   0.181    -.0086592    .0457039
   leadermil |  -.0975672   .0746784    -1.31   0.192    -.2443298    .0491953
      loggdp |  -.0096636   .0367419    -0.26   0.793     -.081871    .0625438
      logoil |  -.0236253   .0212399    -1.11   0.267    -.0653671    .0181166
      intwar |  -.0137283   .0269277    -0.51   0.610    -.0666483    .0391918
      civwar |  -.0000788   .0170531    -0.00   0.996    -.0335927     .033435
        cyrs |   .0741833    .008457     8.77   0.000     .0575632    .0908034
       cyrs2 |  -.0026766   .0004673    -5.73   0.000    -.0035951   -.0017581
       cyrs3 |   .0000338   6.75e-06     5.01   0.000     .0000206    .0000471
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t $x cyrs* if sample==1 & xpers>0,nonpar($d)cluster($id3) g
> en(fB1 rB1)deg($deg) spline  knots1(.25 .6) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    3596
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1713
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1679
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1748
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0281367   .0086936    -3.24   0.001    -.0452351   -.0110384
       time2 |   .0001105   .0000903     1.22   0.222     -.000067    .0002881
       G_age |   .0001573   .0030419     0.05   0.959    -.0058254      .00614
          lt |   .0182547   .0171947     1.06   0.289    -.0155636     .052073
   leadermil |  -.1397598   .0990316    -1.41   0.159    -.3345336    .0550141
      loggdp |  -.0085358   .0374001    -0.23   0.820    -.0820938    .0650222
      logoil |  -.0386282   .0238966    -1.62   0.107    -.0856276    .0083712
      intwar |  -.0126959    .030178    -0.42   0.674    -.0720495    .0466576
      civwar |   .0166046    .014653     1.13   0.258    -.0122147     .045424
        cyrs |   .0685544   .0090995     7.53   0.000     .0506575    .0864512
       cyrs2 |  -.0026365   .0005211    -5.06   0.000    -.0036614   -.0016115
       cyrs3 |   .0000356   7.90e-06     4.51   0.000     .0000201    .0000512
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(995 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t $x cyrs* if sample==1 & xpers<1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3) g
> en(fB2 rB2)deg($deg) spline  knots1(.25 .6) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4044
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1884
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1853
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1878
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0354136   .0078902    -4.49   0.000      -.05092   -.0199073
       time2 |   .0001563   .0000834     1.87   0.062    -7.61e-06    .0003203
       G_age |   .0001118   .0024064     0.05   0.963    -.0046174    .0048409
          lt |   .0169546   .0137221     1.24   0.217     -.010013    .0439222
   leadermil |   -.096385   .0744136    -1.30   0.196     -.242628    .0498581
      loggdp |  -.0148766   .0364939    -0.41   0.684     -.086597    .0568439
      logoil |  -.0206123   .0213685    -0.96   0.335    -.0626073    .0213827
      intwar |   -.012843   .0281189    -0.46   0.648    -.0681042    .0424182
      civwar |   .0007256   .0177166     0.04   0.967    -.0340922    .0355435
        cyrs |   .0771661   .0083971     9.19   0.000     .0606635    .0936687
       cyrs2 |  -.0027269   .0004602    -5.93   0.000    -.0036313   -.0018224
       cyrs3 |   .0000338   6.65e-06     5.08   0.000     .0000207    .0000468
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(547 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         
.                                         **********************************************************
.                                         *** Rescale predicted values/residuals from LMP to 0,1 ***
.                                         **********************************************************
.                                                 qui sum $y

.                                                 global shmean=r(mean)

.                                                 local var ="fA rA fA1 rA1 fA2 rA2 fB rB fB1 rB1 fB2 
> rB2"

.                                                 foreach v of local var {
  2.                                                         replace `v'=invlogit(`v')
  3.                                                         qui sum `v'
  4.                                                         replace `v'=`v'-r(mean)+$shmean
  5.                                                 }
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,567 real changes made)
(4,567 real changes made)
(3,650 real changes made)
(3,650 real changes made)
(3,835 real changes made)
(3,835 real changes made)
(4,160 real changes made)
(4,160 real changes made)
(4,416 real changes made)
(4,416 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(3,596 real changes made)
(3,596 real changes made)
(3,784 real changes made)
(3,784 real changes made)
(4,044 real changes made)
(4,044 real changes made)
(4,301 real changes made)
(4,301 real changes made)

.                         twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)
> ylab(0(0)0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                                 (line fA xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)sort yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(
> 2)) title(No covariate adjustment)) ///
>                                 (line fA1 xpers,lcol(cyan)lpat(dash)sort saving(fit1SH.gph,replace)y
> lab(0(.01).04)yscale(range(0 0.04))) ///
>                                 (line fA2 xpers,lcol(red)lpat(dash)sort xtit("")ytit("Probability of
>  reshuffling coup" "(partial)",height(1)) ///
>                                 legend(lab(2 "All values")lab(3 "Exclude lowest")lab(4 "Exclude high
> est")pos(2)ring(0)order(2 3 4))) 
(note: file fit1SH.gph not found)
(file fit1SH.gph saved)

.                         twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)
> ylab(0(0)0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                                 (line fB xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)sort yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(
> 2)) title(Covariate adjustment)) ///
>                                 (line fB1 xpers,lcol(cyan)lpat(dash)sort saving(fit2SH.gph,replace))
>  ///
>                                 (line fB2 xpers,lcol(red)lpat(dash)sort xtit("")ytit("")ylab(0(.01).
> 04)yscale(range(0 0.04)) ///
>                                 legend(lab(2 "All values")lab(3 "Exclude lowest")lab(4 "Exclude high
> est")pos(2)ring(0)order(2 3 4)))
(note: file fit2SH.gph not found)
(file fit2SH.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fit1SH.gph fit2SH.gph,xsize(8)title(Reshuffling coups,size(large)
> )name("shcoup", replace)cols(2)  

.                 
.                         gr combine shcoup chcoup assa,col(1)ysize(11)xsize(8)iscale(.6)  ///
>                                 b1tit(Personalism index,size(small)height(0))

.                         graph export "$plots\Figure-2.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-2.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
.                         ************************
.                         * One-line linear test *
.                         ************************
.                         * One line test: No covariate adjustments *
.                         xtset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe $y cyrs* xpers,absorb(gwf_caseid time)cluster($id3 year) 

.                         lincom xpers 

 ( 1)  xpers = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |   -.052609   .0184184    -2.86   0.006     -.089404    -.015814
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         margins,dydx(xpers)  

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,567
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xpers

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xpers |   -.052609   .0184184    -2.86   0.004    -.0887084   -.0165096
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         test xpers==0

 ( 1)  xpers = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    8.16
            Prob > F =    0.0058

.                         predict xb if xpers<=1 & e(sample)==1,xb
(24 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1 = invlogit(xb)-.5
(24 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum xb1

.                         replace xb1=xb1-r(mean)+  $shmean
(4,567 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fA xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)ylab(0(.01).04)sort) ///
>                                 (lfit xb1 xpers if xpers<=1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit(Probabilit
> y of reshuffle coup) ///
>                                 xtit("")saving(fitT1SH.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit") order(1 2)col(1)ri
> ng(0)pos(7)) ///
>                                 tit("All values of personalism") ///
>                                 text(0.006 0.495  "{&beta}=-0.053" "p<0.004" ,size(small)))
(note: file fitT1SH.gph not found)
(file fitT1SH.gph saved)

.                         drop xb xb1

.                         xtset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe $y cyrs* xpers if xpers<1,absorb(gwf_caseid time)cluster($id3 ) 

.                         lincom xpers 

 ( 1)  xpers = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |  -.0568006   .0174635    -3.25   0.001    -.0911149   -.0224864
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         margins,dydx(xpers)  

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,416
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xpers

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xpers |  -.0568006   .0174635    -3.25   0.001    -.0910286   -.0225727
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         test xpers==0

 ( 1)  xpers = 0

       F(  1,   481) =   10.58
            Prob > F =    0.0012

.                         predict xb if xpers<1 & e(sample)==1,xb
(175 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1 = invlogit(xb)-.5
(175 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum xb1

.                         replace xb1=xb1-r(mean)+  $shmean
(4,416 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fA xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)ylab(0(.01).04)sort  ) ///
>                                 (lfit xb1 xpers if xpers<=1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit("") ///
>                                 xtit("")saving(fitT2SH.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit") order(1 2)col(1)ri
> ng(0)pos(7)) ///
>                                 tit("Personalism <= 0.9")  ///
>                                 text(0.006 0.515  "{&beta}=-0.057" "p<0.001" ,size(small)))         
>             
(note: file fitT2SH.gph not found)
(file fitT2SH.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fitT1SH.gph fitT2SH.gph,xsize(8) title(Reshuffling coups,size(lar
> ge))name("shcoupT", replace)cols(2)  

.                         gr combine shcoupT chcoupT assaT ,col(1)ysize(11)xsize(8)iscale(.6)  ///
>                                 b1tit(Personalism index,size(vsmall)height(0))

.                         graph export "$plots\Figure-3.pdf",as(pdf)replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-3.pdf written in PDF format)

.                         drop xb xb1

.                         
.                         * One line test: With covariate adjustments *
.                         xtset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe $y $x cyrs* xpers,absorb(gwf_caseid time)cluster($id3 year) 

.                         lincom xpers 

 ( 1)  xpers = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |  -.0553564   .0187556    -2.95   0.004     -.092825   -.0178877
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         margins,dydx(xpers)  

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,449
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xpers

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xpers |  -.0553564   .0187556    -2.95   0.003    -.0921167    -.018596
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         test xpers==0

 ( 1)  xpers = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    8.71
            Prob > F =    0.0044

.                         predict xb if xpers<=1 & e(sample)==1,xb
(142 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1 = invlogit(xb)-.5
(142 missing values generated)

.                         replace xb1=xb1+($shmean/2)
(4,449 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fB xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)ylab(0(.01).04)sort  ) ///
>                                 (lfit xb1 xpers if xpers<=1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit(Predicted 
> probability of reshuffle coup) ///
>                                 xtit(Personalism)saving(fit1.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit") order(1 2)col(1)ri
> ng(0)pos(7)) ///
>                                 tit("All values of personalism")  ///
>                                 text(0.01 0.48  "{&beta}=-0.055" "p<0.003" ,size(small)))
(file fit1.gph saved)

.                         drop xb xb1

.                         xtset $id3 year
       panel variable:  gwf_leaderid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

.                         qui reghdfe $y $x cyrs* xpers if xpers<1,absorb(gwf_caseid time)cluster($id3
>  year) 

.                         lincom xpers 

 ( 1)  xpers = 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         (1) |  -.0578778   .0202582    -2.86   0.006    -.0983482   -.0174074
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         margins,dydx(xpers)  

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      4,299
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : xpers

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       xpers |  -.0578778   .0202582    -2.86   0.004    -.0975832   -.0181725
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         test xpers==0

 ( 1)  xpers = 0

       F(  1,    64) =    8.16
            Prob > F =    0.0058

.                         predict xb if xpers<1 & e(sample)==1,xb
(292 missing values generated)

.                         gen xb1 = invlogit(xb)-.5
(292 missing values generated)

.                         replace xb1=xb1+($shmean/2)
(4,299 real changes made)

.                         twoway (line fB xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(gs10)ylab(0(.01).04) sort  ) ///
>                                 (lfit xb1 xpers if xpers<=1,lpat(solid)lcol(blue*1.1)ytit(Predicted 
> probability of reshuffle coup) ///
>                                 xtit(Personalism)saving(fit2.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "Nonlinear fit") lab(2 "Linear fit") order(1 2)col(1)ri
> ng(0)pos(7)) ///
>                                 tit("Personalism <= 0.9")  ///
>                                 text(0.0095 0.48  "{&beta}=-0.058" "p<0.01" ,size(small)))          
>             
(file fit2.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fit1.gph fit2.gph,xsize(8) title(Reshuffling coups,size(large))na
> me("shcoupTC", replace)cols(2)  

.                         gr combine shcoupTC chcoupTC assaTC,col(1)ysize(12)xsize(8)iscale(.5)  ///
>                                 b1tit(Personalism index,size(vsmall)height(0))

.                         graph export "$plots\Figure-C-1.pdf",as(pdf)replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-C-1.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 
.                 *******************************************************************************
.                 *** Appendix B-1: Ambiguous assassinations/assassinations co-occur w/ coups ***
.                 *******************************************************************************
.                 use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                 global deg=5 

.                 tab assa assassination

Assassinat |     assassination
       ion |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     4,457         30 |     4,487 
         1 |         0        104 |       104 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     4,457        134 |     4,591 

.                 tab assa assassination_nocoup_noamb

           | assassination_nocoup_
Assassinat |         noamb
       ion |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     4,486          1 |     4,487 
         1 |        27         77 |       104 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     4,513         78 |     4,591 

.                 tab assa assassination_noamb

Assassinat |  assassination_noamb
       ion |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     4,458         29 |     4,487 
         1 |        27         77 |       104 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     4,485        106 |     4,591 

.                         * Assassinations *
.                 xi:xtsemipar assa $t $x ayrs* if sample==1,ci ///
>                         nonpar($d) cluster($id2) gen(fB rB)deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3802
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3777
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1621
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0571658   .0046114   -12.40   0.000    -.0662475    -.048084
       time2 |   .0004445   .0000598     7.43   0.000     .0003267    .0005622
       G_age |   .0007713   .0010469     0.74   0.462    -.0012906    .0028331
          lt |  -.0025039   .0058464    -0.43   0.669     -.014018    .0090102
   leadermil |   .0128895   .0118689     1.09   0.279    -.0104854    .0362644
      loggdp |   .0190714    .034687     0.55   0.583     -.049242    .0873847
      logoil |  -.0936991   .0430959    -2.17   0.031    -.1785731   -.0088251
      intwar |   .0980988   .0391805     2.50   0.013     .0209358    .1752619
      civwar |   .0263453   .0247692     1.06   0.289    -.0224357    .0751264
        ayrs |   .1262065   .0073604    17.15   0.000     .1117107    .1407023
       ayrs2 |  -.0044317   .0004165   -10.64   0.000    -.0052519   -.0036115
       ayrs3 |   .0000486   5.86e-06     8.31   0.000     .0000371    .0000602
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option ci ignored since no graph is requested


Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar assassination  $t ayrs* $x if samplecov==1,ci ///
>                         nonpar($d) cluster($id2) gen(f1 r1) deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3065
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3037
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1863
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
assassinat~n |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   -.052449   .0051818   -10.12   0.000    -.0626542   -.0422439
       time2 |   .0004066   .0000642     6.33   0.000     .0002801    .0005331
        ayrs |    .121914   .0072239    16.88   0.000      .107687     .136141
       ayrs2 |  -.0042853   .0004277   -10.02   0.000    -.0051276    -.003443
       ayrs3 |   .0000472   6.11e-06     7.72   0.000     .0000352    .0000592
       G_age |  -.0000878   .0018161    -0.05   0.961    -.0036645    .0034889
          lt |    .013765   .0111583     1.23   0.218    -.0082103    .0357403
   leadermil |   .0427106   .0560921     0.76   0.447    -.0677585    .1531796
      loggdp |   .0278643   .0354125     0.79   0.432    -.0418779    .0976064
      logoil |  -.1100927   .0388706    -2.83   0.005    -.1866452   -.0335401
      intwar |   .0999637   .0369095     2.71   0.007     .0272733    .1726542
      civwar |   .0169157     .02496     0.68   0.499    -.0322411    .0660724
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option ci ignored since no graph is requested


Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar assassination_nocoup_noamb $t ayrs* $x if samplecov==1,ci ///
>                         nonpar($d) cluster($id2) gen(f2 r2) deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7) nograph 

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.2666
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.2636
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1523
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
assa~p_noamb |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0359494   .0057641    -6.24   0.000    -.0473013   -.0245975
       time2 |   .0001919   .0000706     2.72   0.007     .0000528     .000331
        ayrs |   .0827306   .0113695     7.28   0.000     .0603393     .105122
       ayrs2 |  -.0027607   .0005661    -4.88   0.000    -.0038756   -.0016459
       ayrs3 |   .0000328   7.22e-06     4.54   0.000     .0000186    .0000471
       G_age |   .0010272    .001213     0.85   0.398    -.0013617    .0034161
          lt |   .0004451   .0068588     0.06   0.948    -.0130627    .0139529
   leadermil |  -.0187375   .0366344    -0.51   0.609    -.0908862    .0534112
      loggdp |   .0025744   .0361704     0.07   0.943    -.0686605    .0738092
      logoil |  -.1177214   .0474026    -2.48   0.014    -.2110772   -.0243656
      intwar |    .006402   .0280232     0.23   0.819    -.0487875    .0615915
      civwar |   .0183823   .0169021     1.09   0.278    -.0149052    .0516697
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option ci ignored since no graph is requested


Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar assassination_noamb $t ayrs* $x if samplecov==1,ci ///
>                         nonpar($d) cluster($id2) gen(f3 r3)deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.2029
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1996
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1764
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
assa~n_noamb |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0316456   .0060609    -5.22   0.000    -.0435821   -.0197092
       time2 |   .0001554   .0000745     2.09   0.038     8.70e-06    .0003022
        ayrs |   .0780343   .0111696     6.99   0.000     .0560366     .100032
       ayrs2 |  -.0025915   .0005576    -4.65   0.000    -.0036896   -.0014934
       ayrs3 |   .0000312   7.16e-06     4.36   0.000     .0000171    .0000453
       G_age |  -.0003266   .0018727    -0.17   0.862    -.0040148    .0033616
          lt |   .0194576   .0114042     1.71   0.089    -.0030021    .0419173
   leadermil |   .0463448   .0564957     0.82   0.413    -.0649192    .1576087
      loggdp |   .0109639   .0361608     0.30   0.762     -.060252    .0821799
      logoil |   -.133558   .0450939    -2.96   0.003    -.2223668   -.0447491
      intwar |   .0091796    .030434     0.30   0.763    -.0507578    .0691169
      civwar |   .0087273   .0169064     0.52   0.606    -.0245685    .0420231
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option ci ignored since no graph is requested


Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 qui sum fB

.                 local m = r(mean)

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50) ///
>                         ylab(0(0)0,axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line fB xpers,lpat(solid)sort lcol(blue)ylab(-.04(.02).04)) ///
>                         (line f1 xpers,lpat(dash)lcol(cyan*.58)sort ylab(-.04(.02).04)) ///
>                         (line f2 xpers,lpat(longdashdot)lcol(cyan*.58)sort ylab(-.04(.02).04)) ///
>                         (line f3 xpers,lpat(solid)lcol(cyan*.58)sort yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2)) 
> ///
>                         xtitle("") ytitle("Probability of Assassination" "(partial)") ///
>                         title(Assassinations) yline(`m',lcol(red)lpat(solid)) ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "No coup, include ambiguous") lab(3 "Include coup") lab(4 "No c
> oup, exclude ambiguous") ///
>                         lab(5 "Include coup & ambiguous") order(2 3 4 5)  pos(11) col(1) ring(0)))
(note:  named style longdashdot not found in class linepattern, default attributes used)
(note:  named style longdashdot not found in class linepattern, default attributes used)

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-B-1.pdf", as(pdf)   replace         
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-B-1.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 
. 
.                 *****************************************  
.                 *** Appendix B-2: Assassination plots ***
.                 ***************************************** 
.                         use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                         gen assa_plot = assa

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Cuba 59-NA" & year==   1961
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Cuba 59-NA" & year==   1961
(assa_plot: 0 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Cuba 59-NA" & year==   1963
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Cuba 59-NA" & year==   1981
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Haiti 57-86" & year==  1963
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Mexico 15-00" & year== 1952
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Nicaragua 36-79" & year==      1954
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Bolivia 69-71" & year==        1971
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Gambia 94-NA" & year== 1995
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Benin 72-90" & year==  1988
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Chad 82-90" & year==   1989
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Congo/Zaire 60-97" & year==    1966
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Libya 69-11" & year==  1981
(assa_plot: 0 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Iran 79-NA" & year==   1982
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Jordan 46-NA" & year== 1958
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="China 49-NA" & year==  1971
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         recode assa_plot (0=1) if gwf_casename=="Myanmar 62-88" & year==        1976
(assa_plot: 1 changes made)

.                         * Plots more likely at higher levels of personalism *
.                         gen plot = assa_plot==1  & assa==0

.                         probit plot time xpers,vce(cluster $id2)

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -100.83251  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -96.351985  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.989425  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.988837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.988837  

Probit regression                               Number of obs     =      4,591
                                                Wald chi2(2)      =      12.04
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0024
Log pseudolikelihood = -95.988837               Pseudo R2         =     0.0480

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 280 clusters in gwf_caseid)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        plot |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0131997    .004576    -2.88   0.004    -.0221684    -.004231
       xpers |   .7734639   .3425658     2.26   0.024     .1020471    1.444881
       _cons |  -2.706669   .2328385   -11.62   0.000    -3.163024   -2.250314
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         xtprobit plot time  xpers,vce(cluster $id2)

Fitting comparison model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -100.83251  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -96.351985  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.989425  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.988837  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.988837  

Fitting full model:

rho =  0.0     log pseudolikelihood = -95.988837
rho =  0.1     log pseudolikelihood = -96.304221

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -96.30423  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.078973  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.043698  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.018106  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.017805  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -95.017805  

Calculating robust standard errors:

Random-effects probit regression                Number of obs     =      4,591
Group variable: gwf_caseid                      Number of groups  =        280

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group:
                                                              min =          1
                                                              avg =       16.4
                                                              max =         65

Integration method: mvaghermite                 Integration pts.  =         12

                                                Wald chi2(2)      =       9.76
Log pseudolikelihood  = -95.017805              Prob > chi2       =     0.0076

                           (Std. Err. adjusted for 280 clusters in gwf_caseid)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        plot |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0154062   .0060798    -2.53   0.011    -.0273224   -.0034899
       xpers |   .8193148   .3797528     2.16   0.031     .0750131    1.563616
       _cons |  -2.883074   .2769272   -10.41   0.000    -3.425841   -2.340307
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnsig2u |  -1.799854   .9666655                     -3.694483     .094776
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |   .4065994   .1965228                      .1576715    1.048529
         rho |   .1418689   .1176839                      .0242573    .5236763
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                         tab assa assa_plot

Assassinat |       assa_plot
       ion |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     4,472         15 |     4,487 
         1 |         0        104 |       104 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     4,472        119 |     4,591 

.                         * Semiparametric *
.                         global deg = 5

.                         global y= "assa_plot"

.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t ayrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(fA rA)deg($
> deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3246
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3230
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1807
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   assa_plot |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0573002   .0060022    -9.55   0.000    -.0690952   -.0455052
       time2 |   .0004394   .0000741     5.93   0.000     .0002938     .000585
        ayrs |   .1255819   .0069701    18.02   0.000     .1118849    .1392788
       ayrs2 |  -.0044181   .0003944   -11.20   0.000    -.0051932    -.003643
       ayrs3 |    .000049   5.60e-06     8.75   0.000      .000038      .00006
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar assa $t ayrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(fA1 rA1)d
> eg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3729
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3715
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1620
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0580836   .0058218    -9.98   0.000     -.069524   -.0466432
       time2 |   .0004521   .0000722     6.27   0.000     .0003103    .0005939
        ayrs |   .1248628   .0069914    17.86   0.000      .111124    .1386017
       ayrs2 |  -.0043717   .0003954   -11.06   0.000    -.0051488   -.0035946
       ayrs3 |   .0000483   5.61e-06     8.62   0.000     .0000373    .0000593
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)
> ylab(0(0)0,nolabel axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                                 (line fA xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(range(-0.06 .0
> 2)alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                                 (line fA1 xpers,lcol(red)lpat(dash)sort ylab(-0.06(0.02)0.02) title(
> No covariate adjustment)   ///
>                                  saving(fit1.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(2 "With plots")lab(3 "Without plots") order(2 3)pos(3)rin
> g(0)))
(file fit1.gph saved)

.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t $x ayrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3) gen(fB rB)d
> eg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3303
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3276
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1813
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   assa_plot |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0559912   .0063961    -8.75   0.000    -.0685612   -.0434211
       time2 |   .0004292   .0000774     5.55   0.000     .0002772    .0005813
       G_age |   -.000137    .001363    -0.10   0.920    -.0028157    .0025417
          lt |   .0019759   .0082011     0.24   0.810    -.0141414    .0180931
   leadermil |   .0107439   .0114727     0.94   0.350    -.0118029    .0332907
      loggdp |   .0098761   .0364677     0.27   0.787    -.0617925    .0815447
      logoil |  -.1048073   .0577988    -1.81   0.070    -.2183972    .0087825
      intwar |   .0958756    .038889     2.47   0.014     .0194486    .1723026
      civwar |   .0166227   .0265619     0.63   0.532    -.0355784    .0688237
        ayrs |    .126803   .0069733    18.18   0.000     .1130986    .1405073
       ayrs2 |  -.0044678    .000393   -11.37   0.000    -.0052401   -.0036956
       ayrs3 |   .0000492   5.56e-06     8.85   0.000     .0000383    .0000601
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar assa $t $x ayrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(fB1 rB
> 1)deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3802
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3777
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1621
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0571658   .0060993    -9.37   0.000    -.0691525   -.0451791
       time2 |   .0004445   .0000747     5.95   0.000     .0002977    .0005912
       G_age |   .0007713   .0010361     0.74   0.457    -.0012649    .0028074
          lt |  -.0025039   .0058609    -0.43   0.669    -.0140221    .0090142
   leadermil |   .0128895   .0112825     1.14   0.254    -.0092835    .0350625
      loggdp |   .0190714   .0341536     0.56   0.577    -.0480495    .0861922
      logoil |  -.0936991   .0586441    -1.60   0.111    -.2089501    .0215519
      intwar |   .0980988   .0389553     2.52   0.012     .0215415    .1746562
      civwar |   .0263453   .0247072     1.07   0.287    -.0222108    .0749015
        ayrs |   .1262065   .0069572    18.14   0.000     .1125338    .1398791
       ayrs2 |  -.0044317   .0003917   -11.31   0.000    -.0052015   -.0036619
       ayrs3 |   .0000486   5.54e-06     8.78   0.000     .0000378    .0000595
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)
> ylab(0(0)0,nolabel axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                                 (line fB xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))so
> rt  ) ///
>                                 (line fB1 xpers,lcol(red)lpat(dash)sort ylab(-0.06(0.02)0.02)title(C
> ovariate adjustment)  ///
>                                  saving(fit2.gph,replace) legend(lab(2 "With plots")lab(3 "Without p
> lots") order(2 3)pos(3)ring(0)))
(file fit2.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fit1.gph fit2.gph,xsize(8) title(Assassinations attempts + report
> ed plots)

.                         graph export "$plots\Figure-B-2.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-B-2.pdf written in PDF format)

.                         
.                 **********************************************************
.                 *** Appendix E: additional BL tests for Assassinations ***
.                 **********************************************************              
.                 use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                 xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                 global deg =5

.                 xi:xtsemipar assa $t $x ayrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(fB rB)deg($deg
> )nogr spline knots2(.15 .7)   

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3802
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3777
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1621
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0571658   .0060993    -9.37   0.000    -.0691525   -.0451791
       time2 |   .0004445   .0000747     5.95   0.000     .0002977    .0005912
       G_age |   .0007713   .0010361     0.74   0.457    -.0012649    .0028074
          lt |  -.0025039   .0058609    -0.43   0.669    -.0140221    .0090142
   leadermil |   .0128895   .0112825     1.14   0.254    -.0092835    .0350625
      loggdp |   .0190714   .0341536     0.56   0.577    -.0480495    .0861922
      logoil |  -.0936991   .0586441    -1.60   0.111    -.2089501    .0215519
      intwar |   .0980988   .0389553     2.52   0.012     .0215415    .1746562
      civwar |   .0263453   .0247072     1.07   0.287    -.0222108    .0749015
        ayrs |   .1262065   .0069572    18.14   0.000     .1125338    .1398791
       ayrs2 |  -.0044317   .0003917   -11.31   0.000    -.0052015   -.0036619
       ayrs3 |   .0000486   5.54e-06     8.78   0.000     .0000378    .0000595
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         * Model specification adjustments *
.                 xi:xtsemipar assa time ayrs* $x,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f1 r1)deg($deg)nogr splin
> e knots2(.15 .7)  

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3763
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3739
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1626
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0283354    .002498   -11.34   0.000    -.0332447   -.0234261
        ayrs |   .1249091   .0070632    17.68   0.000     .1110281    .1387902
       ayrs2 |   -.004521   .0004031   -11.22   0.000    -.0053132   -.0037288
       ayrs3 |   .0000529   5.67e-06     9.34   0.000     .0000418    .0000641
       G_age |   .0009436   .0010772     0.88   0.382    -.0011734    .0030606
          lt |   -.003965    .005946    -0.67   0.505    -.0156504    .0077203
   leadermil |   .0211684   .0133134     1.59   0.113    -.0049959    .0473326
      loggdp |   .0041056   .0349701     0.12   0.907    -.0646198    .0728311
      logoil |  -.0949339   .0560024    -1.70   0.091    -.2049933    .0151256
      intwar |   .0959764   .0392979     2.44   0.015     .0187458     .173207
      civwar |   .0257179    .024769     1.04   0.300    -.0229596    .0743954
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar assa i.year ayrs* $x,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f2 r2)deg($deg)nogr spl
> ine knots2(.15 .7)  
i.year            _Iyear_1946-2010    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1946 omitted)

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3937
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3820
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1615
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 _Iyear_1947 |  -.1208565   .0084396   -14.32   0.000    -.1374425   -.1042705
 _Iyear_1948 |  -.2687737   .0324439    -8.28   0.000    -.3325345   -.2050129
 _Iyear_1949 |  -.3173959   .0554043    -5.73   0.000    -.4262799    -.208512
 _Iyear_1950 |  -.4280305   .0467202    -9.16   0.000    -.5198479   -.3362132
 _Iyear_1951 |  -.5149874   .0679143    -7.58   0.000    -.6484567   -.3815181
 _Iyear_1952 |  -.6177989   .0770252    -8.02   0.000    -.7691736   -.4664243
 _Iyear_1953 |  -.7186206   .0766867    -9.37   0.000      -.86933   -.5679111
 _Iyear_1954 |  -.7618173   .0826164    -9.22   0.000    -.9241802   -.5994545
 _Iyear_1955 |  -.7951444   .0897134    -8.86   0.000    -.9714547   -.6188341
 _Iyear_1956 |  -.8533364   .0937727    -9.10   0.000    -1.037624   -.6690485
 _Iyear_1957 |  -.8340976   .0952342    -8.76   0.000    -1.021258   -.6469374
 _Iyear_1958 |  -.9463662   .0961649    -9.84   0.000    -1.135355    -.757377
 _Iyear_1959 |  -.9440856   .1009779    -9.35   0.000    -1.142534   -.7456376
 _Iyear_1960 |  -.9837339   .1029823    -9.55   0.000    -1.186121   -.7813467
 _Iyear_1961 |  -1.009753   .1117824    -9.03   0.000    -1.229434   -.7900712
 _Iyear_1962 |  -1.012158   .1118742    -9.05   0.000    -1.232021   -.7922962
 _Iyear_1963 |  -1.104306   .1130061    -9.77   0.000    -1.326392   -.8822193
 _Iyear_1964 |  -1.168321   .1138563   -10.26   0.000    -1.392079   -.9445636
 _Iyear_1965 |  -1.212274   .1149308   -10.55   0.000    -1.438143   -.9864046
 _Iyear_1966 |  -1.259839    .118401   -10.64   0.000    -1.492528    -1.02715
 _Iyear_1967 |  -1.276268   .1233921   -10.34   0.000    -1.518766   -1.033771
 _Iyear_1968 |  -1.309726   .1216142   -10.77   0.000    -1.548729   -1.070722
 _Iyear_1969 |  -1.338911    .123708   -10.82   0.000     -1.58203   -1.095793
 _Iyear_1970 |  -1.386616   .1254149   -11.06   0.000    -1.633089   -1.140143
 _Iyear_1971 |  -1.435842   .1263978   -11.36   0.000    -1.684247   -1.187438
 _Iyear_1972 |  -1.483252   .1271704   -11.66   0.000    -1.733175   -1.233329
 _Iyear_1973 |  -1.504654   .1293716   -11.63   0.000    -1.758903   -1.250405
 _Iyear_1974 |   -1.53418   .1308229   -11.73   0.000    -1.791281   -1.277079
 _Iyear_1975 |  -1.546805   .1336233   -11.58   0.000    -1.809409     -1.2842
 _Iyear_1976 |  -1.565576   .1357534   -11.53   0.000    -1.832367   -1.298786
 _Iyear_1977 |  -1.590071   .1360622   -11.69   0.000    -1.857469   -1.322673
 _Iyear_1978 |  -1.600599   .1363445   -11.74   0.000    -1.868551   -1.332646
 _Iyear_1979 |  -1.635794   .1369446   -11.94   0.000    -1.904926   -1.366662
 _Iyear_1980 |  -1.649051   .1391842   -11.85   0.000    -1.922585   -1.375518
 _Iyear_1981 |  -1.687098   .1384493   -12.19   0.000    -1.959187   -1.415009
 _Iyear_1982 |   -1.69946   .1389637   -12.23   0.000    -1.972561    -1.42636
 _Iyear_1983 |  -1.700543   .1394882   -12.19   0.000    -1.974674   -1.426412
 _Iyear_1984 |  -1.721849   .1399981   -12.30   0.000    -1.996981   -1.446716
 _Iyear_1985 |    -1.7169   .1415636   -12.13   0.000    -1.995109    -1.43869
 _Iyear_1986 |  -1.713142    .142135   -12.05   0.000    -1.992474    -1.43381
 _Iyear_1987 |  -1.726037   .1408257   -12.26   0.000    -2.002797   -1.449278
 _Iyear_1988 |  -1.750993   .1402804   -12.48   0.000     -2.02668   -1.475305
 _Iyear_1989 |  -1.757702   .1412649   -12.44   0.000    -2.035324   -1.480079
 _Iyear_1990 |  -1.758365   .1423724   -12.35   0.000    -2.038164   -1.478566
 _Iyear_1991 |  -1.759427   .1425878   -12.34   0.000    -2.039649   -1.479205
 _Iyear_1992 |  -1.762624   .1425775   -12.36   0.000    -2.042826   -1.482422
 _Iyear_1993 |  -1.756101   .1447703   -12.13   0.000    -2.040613    -1.47159
 _Iyear_1994 |  -1.792968   .1477126   -12.14   0.000    -2.083262   -1.502674
 _Iyear_1995 |  -1.804205    .147059   -12.27   0.000    -2.093215   -1.515196
 _Iyear_1996 |  -1.829631   .1463924   -12.50   0.000     -2.11733   -1.541931
 _Iyear_1997 |  -1.853244   .1479035   -12.53   0.000    -2.143913   -1.562575
 _Iyear_1998 |  -1.843321   .1499701   -12.29   0.000    -2.138051    -1.54859
 _Iyear_1999 |   -1.86492   .1514051   -12.32   0.000     -2.16247   -1.567369
 _Iyear_2000 |  -1.909703   .1506509   -12.68   0.000    -2.205772   -1.613635
 _Iyear_2001 |  -1.925401   .1525645   -12.62   0.000     -2.22523   -1.625572
 _Iyear_2002 |  -1.938164   .1527105   -12.69   0.000    -2.238279   -1.638048
 _Iyear_2003 |  -1.955559   .1541818   -12.68   0.000    -2.258566   -1.652551
 _Iyear_2004 |   -1.98657   .1548494   -12.83   0.000     -2.29089    -1.68225
 _Iyear_2005 |  -2.002647   .1572883   -12.73   0.000    -2.311759   -1.693534
 _Iyear_2006 |   -2.03331   .1586002   -12.82   0.000    -2.345001   -1.721619
 _Iyear_2007 |  -2.055647   .1605749   -12.80   0.000    -2.371219   -1.740076
 _Iyear_2008 |   -2.09323   .1615054   -12.96   0.000     -2.41063   -1.775829
 _Iyear_2009 |  -2.113804    .164508   -12.85   0.000    -2.437105   -1.790502
 _Iyear_2010 |  -2.164341   .1671317   -12.95   0.000    -2.492799   -1.835884
        ayrs |   .1304582   .0070013    18.63   0.000     .1166988    .1442176
       ayrs2 |  -.0047831   .0004028   -11.87   0.000    -.0055748   -.0039914
       ayrs3 |   .0000549   5.79e-06     9.48   0.000     .0000435    .0000663
       G_age |   .0008401   .0009949     0.84   0.399    -.0011151    .0027953
          lt |  -.0018754   .0058607    -0.32   0.749    -.0133933    .0096425
   leadermil |   .0128225   .0125536     1.02   0.308    -.0118487    .0374936
      loggdp |   .0364163   .0358056     1.02   0.310    -.0339511    .1067837
      logoil |  -.0979288   .0622623    -1.57   0.116    -.2202905    .0244328
      intwar |   .0988445   .0378479     2.61   0.009     .0244635    .1732256
      civwar |   .0228034   .0234679     0.97   0.332    -.0233172    .0689241
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar assa time time2  ayrs* leadermil loggdp logoil civwar intwar, ///
>                         nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f3 r3)deg($deg)nogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 

                                                Number of obs        =    4207
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3800
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3778
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1618
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0574049   .0060717    -9.45   0.000    -.0693368   -.0454729
       time2 |   .0004476   .0000743     6.02   0.000     .0003016    .0005936
        ayrs |   .1259889   .0069902    18.02   0.000     .1122521    .1397258
       ayrs2 |  -.0044174   .0003936   -11.22   0.000    -.0051908   -.0036439
       ayrs3 |   .0000485   5.56e-06     8.72   0.000     .0000376    .0000594
   leadermil |   .0114108   .0101967     1.12   0.264    -.0086276    .0314491
      loggdp |   .0197962   .0339746     0.58   0.560    -.0469697    .0865621
      logoil |  -.0938198   .0585373    -1.60   0.110    -.2088555    .0212159
      civwar |   .0262406   .0247046     1.06   0.289    -.0223081    .0747893
      intwar |   .0981482   .0389117     2.52   0.012     .0216802    .1746163
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(384 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar assa  time time2  ayrs* lt G_age loggdp logoil intwar civwar, ///
>                         nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f4 r4)deg($deg)nogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3802
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3778
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1621
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0572759   .0060896    -9.41   0.000    -.0692434   -.0453083
       time2 |   .0004464   .0000746     5.99   0.000     .0002998     .000593
        ayrs |   .1262441   .0069564    18.15   0.000     .1125729    .1399152
       ayrs2 |  -.0044335   .0003916   -11.32   0.000    -.0052032   -.0036639
       ayrs3 |   .0000486   5.54e-06     8.78   0.000     .0000378    .0000595
          lt |  -.0025487    .005855    -0.44   0.664    -.0140554     .008958
       G_age |   .0007503   .0010352     0.72   0.469    -.0012841    .0027847
      loggdp |   .0194093   .0340949     0.57   0.569    -.0475962    .0864147
      logoil |  -.0938646   .0586227    -1.60   0.110    -.2090735    .0213444
      intwar |   .0979264   .0389572     2.51   0.012     .0213653    .1744875
      civwar |   .0263294   .0247046     1.07   0.287    -.0222216    .0748805
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar assa  time time2  ayrs* lt G_age leadermil intwar civwar, ///
>                         nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f5 r5)deg($deg)nogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 

                                                Number of obs        =    4297
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3767
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3746
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1619
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0579405   .0058438    -9.91   0.000    -.0694246   -.0464563
       time2 |   .0004549    .000072     6.32   0.000     .0003134    .0005964
        ayrs |   .1248369   .0068958    18.10   0.000     .1112853    .1383884
       ayrs2 |  -.0043709    .000389   -11.24   0.000    -.0051354   -.0036064
       ayrs3 |    .000048   5.50e-06     8.74   0.000     .0000372    .0000588
          lt |  -.0027949   .0057788    -0.48   0.629    -.0141514    .0085615
       G_age |   .0008654   .0010255     0.84   0.399    -.0011499    .0028807
   leadermil |   .0145992   .0113911     1.28   0.201    -.0077866     .036985
      intwar |   .0988389   .0393321     2.51   0.012     .0215437     .176134
      civwar |   .0267909   .0247753     1.08   0.280    -.0218974    .0754791
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(294 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar assa  time time2   ayrs* lt G_age support leadermil loggdp logoil, ///
>                         nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f6 r6)deg($deg)nogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3777
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3753
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1624
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0571052   .0061377    -9.30   0.000    -.0691674    -.045043
       time2 |   .0004347   .0000755     5.76   0.000     .0002863    .0005831
        ayrs |   .1262778   .0070392    17.94   0.000     .1124439    .1401117
       ayrs2 |  -.0044368   .0003974   -11.16   0.000    -.0052178   -.0036557
       ayrs3 |    .000049   5.64e-06     8.69   0.000     .0000379    .0000601
          lt |   -.002717    .005841    -0.47   0.642    -.0141961     .008762
       G_age |   .0008816   .0010063     0.88   0.381    -.0010961    .0028593
supportparty |   .0464107   .0256533     1.81   0.071    -.0040048    .0968262
   leadermil |   .0154733    .010359     1.49   0.136     -.004885    .0358315
      loggdp |   .0116789   .0352248     0.33   0.740    -.0575471    .0809049
      logoil |  -.0939134   .0599186    -1.57   0.118    -.2116692    .0238424
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yaxis(2)bin(50)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))ylab(0(0
> )0,axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line fB xpers,sort lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)) ///
>                         (line f1 xpers,sort  ) ///
>                         (line f2 xpers,sort  ) ///
>                         (line f3 xpers,sort  ) ///
>                         (line f4 xpers,sort  ) ///
>                         (line f5 xpers,sort  ) ///
>                         (line f6 xpers,sort ylab(-.04(.02).02)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))  ///
>                         xtitle(Personalism score,height(4)) ytitle(Probability of Assassination) ///
>                         title(Model specification adjustments) ///
>                         yline(0,lcol(red)lpat(dash)) ///
>                         legend(lab(1 "Personalism score") lab(2 "Full specification") ///
>                         lab(3 "Linear time trend") lab(4 "Year effects") lab(5 "Omit leader duration
>  & age") ///
>                         lab(6 "Omit military leader") lab(7 "Omit GDPpc, Oil") lab(8 "Omit conflict"
> )  ///
>                         pos(6) col(3) ring(1)size(small) order(2 3 4 5 6 7 8))) 

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-E-2.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-2.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 drop f6 r6 f5 r5 f4 r4 f3 r3 f2 r2 f1 r1 

. 
.                         * Additional covariates in the specification *
.                 xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t ayrs* $x lpop,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f1 r1)deg($deg)nog
> r spline knots2(.15 .7) 
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t  ayrs* $x excluded,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f2 r2)deg($de
> g)nogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t  ayrs* $x legcomp,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f3 r3)deg($deg
> )nogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t  ayrs* $x nelda_inc,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f4 r4)deg($d
> eg)nogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t  ayrs* $x vkill3,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f5 r5)deg($deg)
> nogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t  ayrs* $x lcyrs,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f6 r6)deg($deg)n
> ogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t  ayrs* $x nmc_logmilex,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f7 r7)deg
> ($deg)nogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t  ayrs* $x nmc_logmilper,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(f8 r8)de
> g($deg)nogr spline knots2(.15 .7) 
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yaxis(2)bin(50)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))ylab(0(0
> )0,axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line fB xpers,sort col(cyan)lpat(solid)) ///
>                         (line f1 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f2 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f3 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f4 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f5 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f6 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f7 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f8 xpers,sort ylab(-.04(.02).02)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))  ///
>                         xtitle(Personalism score,height(4)) ytitle(Probability of Assassination) ///
>                         title(Model specification adjustments) ///
>                         yline(0,lcol(red)lpat(dash)) ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "Baseline") lab(3 "Population") lab(4 "Ethnic exclusion") lab(5
>  "Institutions") ///
>                          lab(6 "Election") lab(7 "Repression") lab(8 "Time since coup") ///
>                          lab(9 "Military spending") lab(10 "Military personnel")  ///
>                          pos(6) col(4) ring(1) order(2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10)))      

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-E-3.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-3.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 drop f8 r8 f7 r7 f6 r6 f5 r5 f4 r4 f3 r3 f2 r2 f1 r1 

.          
.                 * leave one out tests *
.                 gen iregion = 1 if cow<200
(3,981 missing values generated)

.                 replace iregion = 2 if cow>=200 & cow<400
(553 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 3 if cow>=400 & cow<500
(881 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 4 if cow>=500 & cow<600
(697 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 5 if cow>=600 & cow<700
(884 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 6 if cow>=700 
(966 real changes made)

.                 forval i=1(1)6 {
  2.                         xi:qui xtsemipar assa $t ayrs* $x if iregion~=`i', nonpar($d)cluster($id3
> )gen(f`i' r`i')deg($deg)nogr spline knots2(.15 .7)  
  3.                 }
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yaxis(2)bin(50)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))ylab(0(0
> )0,axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line fB xpers,sort col(cyan)lpat(solid)) ///
>                         (line f1 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f2 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f3 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f4 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f5 xpers,sort col(red*.35)) ///
>                         (line f6 xpers,yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort ///
>                         xtitle(Personalism score,height(4)) ytitle(Probability of Assassination) ///
>                         title(Leave-one-out-region) ///
>                         yline(0,lcol(red)lpat(dash)) ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "All") lab(3 "Americas") lab(4 "Europe") lab(5 "Central/West Af
> rica") ///
>                          lab(6 "East/Southern Africa") lab(7 "MENA") lab(8 "Asia")  ///
>                          pos(12) col(3) ring(0) order(3 4 5 6 7 8 2)))  

.                 drop f6 r6 f5 r5 f4 r4 f3 r3 f2 r2 f1 r1 

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-E-4.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-4.pdf written in PDF format)

.      
.                 **********************************************************
.                 *** Appendix E: additional BL tests for Change coups ***
.                 **********************************************************      
.                 use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                 global deg=3

.                 xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                 xi:xtsemipar chcoup $t $x cyrs* if sample==1,nograph  nonpar($d) cluster($id3) gen(f
> CHb rCHb)deg($deg) spline  

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0887
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0854
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2201
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0101153   .0080908     1.25   0.212    -.0057853    .0260159
       time2 |  -.0000666     .00009    -0.74   0.460    -.0002435    .0001103
       G_age |    .003525   .0020036     1.76   0.079    -.0004125    .0074625
          lt |  -.0301286   .0127469    -2.36   0.019    -.0551797   -.0050776
   leadermil |  -.0973234   .0549389    -1.77   0.077    -.2052928    .0106459
      loggdp |  -.0241808   .0409247    -0.59   0.555    -.1046084    .0562469
      logoil |  -.0155268   .0294442    -0.53   0.598    -.0733924    .0423388
      intwar |   .0835472   .0408697     2.04   0.042     .0032275    .1638668
      civwar |  -.0083455   .0318522    -0.26   0.793    -.0709434    .0542523
        cyrs |   .0700546   .0096094     7.29   0.000     .0511697    .0889395
       cyrs2 |  -.0030398   .0005304    -5.73   0.000    -.0040821   -.0019974
       cyrs3 |   .0000344   7.26e-06     4.73   0.000     .0000201    .0000486
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         * Model specification adjustments *
.                 xi:xtsemipar chcoup time cyrs* $x,nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f1 r1) deg($deg)no
> graph spline  

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0886
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0856
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2200
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0056479   .0036597     1.54   0.123    -.0015445    .0128402
        cyrs |   .0701991    .009571     7.33   0.000     .0513896    .0890086
       cyrs2 |  -.0030353   .0005312    -5.71   0.000    -.0040794   -.0019913
       cyrs3 |    .000034   7.32e-06     4.65   0.000     .0000196    .0000484
       G_age |   .0034945   .0020052     1.74   0.082    -.0004463    .0074353
          lt |  -.0298381   .0127357    -2.34   0.020    -.0548671   -.0048091
   leadermil |  -.0979721   .0550198    -1.78   0.076    -.2061005    .0101563
      loggdp |  -.0217919   .0405472    -0.54   0.591    -.1014777    .0578939
      logoil |  -.0150892   .0293744    -0.51   0.608    -.0728175    .0426391
      intwar |    .083621   .0408523     2.05   0.041     .0033355    .1639065
      civwar |  -.0082151   .0318342    -0.26   0.796    -.0707777    .0543475
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar chcoup $t  cyrs* $x,nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f2 r2) deg($deg)nog
> raph spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0887
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0854
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2201
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0101153   .0080908     1.25   0.212    -.0057853    .0260159
       time2 |  -.0000666     .00009    -0.74   0.460    -.0002435    .0001103
        cyrs |   .0700546   .0096094     7.29   0.000     .0511697    .0889395
       cyrs2 |  -.0030398   .0005304    -5.73   0.000    -.0040821   -.0019974
       cyrs3 |   .0000344   7.26e-06     4.73   0.000     .0000201    .0000486
       G_age |    .003525   .0020036     1.76   0.079    -.0004125    .0074625
          lt |  -.0301286   .0127469    -2.36   0.019    -.0551797   -.0050776
   leadermil |  -.0973234   .0549389    -1.77   0.077    -.2052928    .0106459
      loggdp |  -.0241808   .0409247    -0.59   0.555    -.1046084    .0562469
      logoil |  -.0155268   .0294442    -0.53   0.598    -.0733924    .0423388
      intwar |   .0835472   .0408697     2.04   0.042     .0032275    .1638668
      civwar |  -.0083455   .0318522    -0.26   0.793    -.0709434    .0542523
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar chcoup $t  cyrs* leadermil loggdp logoil civwar intwar, ///
>                         nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f3 r3) deg($deg)nograph  spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4207
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0857
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0829
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2205
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0082373   .0081174     1.01   0.311    -.0077149    .0241894
       time2 |   -.000047   .0000898    -0.52   0.601    -.0002233    .0001294
        cyrs |   .0668475   .0093476     7.15   0.000     .0484779    .0852172
       cyrs2 |  -.0028536    .000523    -5.46   0.000    -.0038813   -.0018259
       cyrs3 |   .0000318   7.18e-06     4.43   0.000     .0000177     .000046
   leadermil |  -.0953262   .0593473    -1.61   0.109    -.2119537    .0213013
      loggdp |  -.0204293   .0414788    -0.49   0.623    -.1019421    .0610836
      logoil |  -.0150239   .0297814    -0.50   0.614    -.0735493    .0435016
      civwar |   -.008745   .0320166    -0.27   0.785     -.071663     .054173
      intwar |    .085586   .0412206     2.08   0.038     .0045807    .1665914
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(384 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar chcoup  $t  cyrs* lt G_age loggdp logoil intwar civwar, ///
>                         nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f4 r4) deg($deg)nograph spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0875
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0844
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2202
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0106658   .0081308     1.31   0.190    -.0053134    .0266449
       time2 |  -.0000734   .0000902    -0.81   0.416    -.0002507    .0001039
        cyrs |   .0696306   .0096069     7.25   0.000     .0507506    .0885107
       cyrs2 |  -.0030019   .0005267    -5.70   0.000     -.004037   -.0019668
       cyrs3 |   .0000337   7.20e-06     4.68   0.000     .0000195    .0000478
          lt |  -.0297623   .0130274    -2.28   0.023    -.0553646   -.0041601
       G_age |   .0036885   .0021234     1.74   0.083    -.0004845    .0078615
      loggdp |  -.0264768    .040917    -0.65   0.518    -.1068894    .0539358
      logoil |  -.0144137   .0293152    -0.49   0.623    -.0720257    .0431982
      intwar |   .0850716   .0407659     2.09   0.037      .004956    .1651872
      civwar |  -.0082367   .0318446    -0.26   0.796    -.0708197    .0543463
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar chcoup  $t  cyrs* lt G_age leadermil intwar civwar, ///
>                         nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f5 r5) deg($deg)nograph spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4297
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0867
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0839
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2190
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0100686    .007726     1.30   0.193    -.0051144    .0252516
       time2 |  -.0000665   .0000901    -0.74   0.461    -.0002436    .0001106
        cyrs |   .0695789   .0094781     7.34   0.000     .0509526    .0882052
       cyrs2 |  -.0030808   .0005266    -5.85   0.000    -.0041157   -.0020459
       cyrs3 |   .0000353   7.27e-06     4.86   0.000      .000021    .0000496
          lt |  -.0289956   .0125479    -2.31   0.021    -.0536546   -.0043366
       G_age |   .0031386   .0019916     1.58   0.116    -.0007754    .0070525
   leadermil |  -.0993034   .0547911    -1.81   0.071    -.2069785    .0083716
      intwar |   .0841074   .0411378     2.04   0.041     .0032638     .164951
      civwar |  -.0082596    .031913    -0.26   0.796    -.0709747    .0544555
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(294 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar chcoup  $t  cyrs* lt G_age leadermil loggdp logoil, ///
>                         nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f6 r6) deg($deg)nograph spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0866
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0837
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2203
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0102009   .0080872     1.26   0.208    -.0056927    .0260944
       time2 |  -.0000672     .00009    -0.75   0.455    -.0002441    .0001096
        cyrs |   .0703849   .0096672     7.28   0.000     .0513863    .0893835
       cyrs2 |  -.0030669   .0005323    -5.76   0.000    -.0041131   -.0020207
       cyrs3 |   .0000348   7.28e-06     4.78   0.000     .0000205    .0000491
          lt |  -.0304896   .0127318    -2.39   0.017    -.0555108   -.0054684
       G_age |   .0035827   .0019933     1.80   0.073    -.0003347       .0075
   leadermil |  -.1003073   .0543424    -1.85   0.066    -.2071042    .0064896
      loggdp |  -.0282365    .040929    -0.69   0.491    -.1086728    .0521997
      logoil |  -.0163427   .0293823    -0.56   0.578    -.0740865    .0414011
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yaxis(2)bin(50)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))ylab(0(0
> )0,axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line fCHb xpers, sort lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)) ///
>                         (line f1 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f2 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f3 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f4 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f5 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f6 xpers,ylab(-.08(.04).04)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort ///
>                         xtitle(Personalism score,height(4)) ytitle(Probability of Regime change coup
> s) ///
>                         title(Model specification adjustments) ///
>                         yline(0,lcol(red)lpat(dash)) ///
>                         legend(lab(1 "Personalism score") lab(2 "Full specification") ///
>                         lab(3 "Linear trend") lab(4 "Year effects") lab(5 "Omit leader variables") /
> //
>                         lab(6 "Omit military leader") lab(7 "Omit GDPpc, Oil") lab(8 "Omit conflict"
> )  ///
>                         pos(6) col(3) ring(1)size(small) order(2 3 4 5 6 7 8))) 

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-E-5.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-5.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 drop f6 r6 f5 r5 f4 r4 f3 r3 f2 r2 f1 r1 

. 
.                         * Additional covariates in the specification *
.                 xi:qui xtsemipar chcoup  $t cyrs* $x lpop,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f1 r1
> ) deg($deg)spline  
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar chcoup  $t cyrs* $x excluded,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f
> 2 r2) deg($deg)spline   
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar chcoup  $t cyrs* $x legcomp,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f3
>  r3) deg($deg)spline  
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar chcoup  $t cyrs* $x nelda_inc,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(
> f4 r4) deg($deg)spline  
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar chcoup  $t cyrs* $x vkill3,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f5 
> r5) deg($deg)spline  
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar chcoup  $t cyrs* $x layrs,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f6 r
> 6) deg($deg)spline  
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar chcoup  $t cyrs* $x nmc_logmilex,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) g
> en(f7 r7) deg($deg)spline  
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar chcoup  $t cyrs* $x nmc_logmilper,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) 
> gen(f8 r8) deg($deg)spline  
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yaxis(2)bin(50)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))ylab(0(0
> )0,axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line fCHb xpers, sort col(cyan)lpat(solid)) ///
>                         (line f1 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f2 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f3 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f4 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f5 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f6 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f7 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f8 xpers,ylab(-.08(.02).02)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2)) sort ///
>                         xtitle(Personalism score,height(4)) ytitle(Probability of Regime change coup
> s) ///
>                         title(Model specification adjustments) ///
>                         yline(0,lcol(red)lpat(dash)) ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "Baseline") lab(3 "Population") lab(4 "Ethnic exclusion") lab(5
>  "Institutions") ///
>                          lab(6 "Election") lab(7 "Repression") lab(8 "Time since assassination") ///
>                          lab(9 "Military spending") lab(10 "Military personnel")  ///
>                          pos(6) col(4) ring(1)size(small) order(2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10)))   

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-E-6.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-6.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 drop f8 r8 f7 r7 f6 r6 f5 r5 f4 r4 f3 r3 f2 r2 f1 r1 

.          
.                 * leave one out tests *
.                 gen iregion = 1 if cow<200
(3,981 missing values generated)

.                 replace iregion = 2 if cow>=200 & cow<400
(553 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 3 if cow>=400 & cow<500
(881 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 4 if cow>=500 & cow<600
(697 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 5 if cow>=600 & cow<700
(884 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 6 if cow>=700 
(966 real changes made)

.                 forval i=1(1)6 {
  2.                         xi:qui xtsemipar chcoup $t cyrs* $x if iregion~=`i',nogr spline nonpar(xp
> ers) cluster($id3) gen(f`i' r`i') deg($deg)  
  3.                 }
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yaxis(2)bin(50)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))ylab(0(0
> )0,axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line fCHb xpers, sort col(cyan)lpat(solid)) ///
>                         (line f1 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f2 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f3 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f4 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f5 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f6 xpers,yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort ///
>                         xtitle(Personalism score,height(4)) ytitle(Probability of Regime change coup
> s) ///
>                         title(Leave-one-out-region) ///
>                         yline(0,lcol(red)lpat(dash)) ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "All") lab(3 "Americas") lab(4 "Europe") lab(5 "Central/West Af
> rica") ///
>                          lab(6 "East/Southern Africa") lab(7 "MENA") lab(8 "Asia")  ///
>                          pos(6) col(3) ring(1) order(3 4 5 6 7 8 2)))   

.                 drop f6 r6 f5 r5 f4 r4 f3 r3 f2 r2 f1 r1 

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-E-7.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-7.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 
. 
.                 ***********************************************************
.                 *** Appendix D-3: additional BL tests for Reshuffle coups ***
.                 ***********************************************************
.                 use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                 xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                 global deg=3

.                 xi:xtsemipar shcoup $t $x cyrs* if sample==1,nograph nonpar($d) cluster($id3) gen(fS
> Hb rSHb)deg($deg) spline 

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1811
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1782
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1868
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0345279   .0077921    -4.43   0.000    -.0498414   -.0192145
       time2 |   .0001618   .0000821     1.97   0.049     4.85e-07     .000323
       G_age |   .0001284    .002417     0.05   0.958    -.0046216    .0048783
          lt |   .0184612   .0138495     1.33   0.183    -.0087567    .0456791
   leadermil |  -.0957922   .0740184    -1.29   0.196    -.2412577    .0496734
      loggdp |  -.0108342   .0368053    -0.29   0.769    -.0831663    .0614979
      logoil |  -.0236678   .0212414    -1.11   0.266    -.0654128    .0180772
      intwar |   -.014039   .0271613    -0.52   0.605    -.0674182    .0393401
      civwar |  -.0000137   .0170494    -0.00   0.999    -.0335202    .0334928
        cyrs |   .0741396   .0084389     8.79   0.000      .057555    .0907243
       cyrs2 |  -.0026704   .0004674    -5.71   0.000    -.0035889   -.0017518
       cyrs3 |   .0000338   6.75e-06     5.00   0.000     .0000205     .000047
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


. 
.                         * Model specification adjustments *
.                 xi:xtsemipar shcoup time cyrs* $x,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f1 r1) deg($d
> eg)   spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1806
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1778
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1868
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0236778   .0037148    -6.37   0.000    -.0309783   -.0163772
        cyrs |   .0737887   .0083562     8.83   0.000     .0573665    .0902108
       cyrs2 |  -.0026811   .0004671    -5.74   0.000     -.003599   -.0017632
       cyrs3 |   .0000347   6.80e-06     5.10   0.000     .0000213     .000048
       G_age |   .0002024   .0024202     0.08   0.933     -.004554    .0049588
          lt |   .0177555    .013788     1.29   0.198    -.0093414    .0448525
   leadermil |  -.0942167   .0737894    -1.28   0.202    -.2392323    .0507988
      loggdp |   -.016636   .0362717    -0.46   0.647    -.0879193    .0546473
      logoil |  -.0247306    .021644    -1.14   0.254    -.0672667    .0178055
      intwar |  -.0142184   .0272151    -0.52   0.602    -.0677031    .0392664
      civwar |  -.0003305   .0170758    -0.02   0.985    -.0338888    .0332279
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar shcoup $t cyrs* $x,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f2 r2) deg($deg
> )   spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1811
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1782
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1868
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0345279   .0077921    -4.43   0.000    -.0498414   -.0192145
       time2 |   .0001618   .0000821     1.97   0.049     4.85e-07     .000323
        cyrs |   .0741396   .0084389     8.79   0.000      .057555    .0907243
       cyrs2 |  -.0026704   .0004674    -5.71   0.000    -.0035889   -.0017518
       cyrs3 |   .0000338   6.75e-06     5.00   0.000     .0000205     .000047
       G_age |   .0001284    .002417     0.05   0.958    -.0046216    .0048783
          lt |   .0184612   .0138495     1.33   0.183    -.0087567    .0456791
   leadermil |  -.0957922   .0740184    -1.29   0.196    -.2412577    .0496734
      loggdp |  -.0108342   .0368053    -0.29   0.769    -.0831663    .0614979
      logoil |  -.0236678   .0212414    -1.11   0.266    -.0654128    .0180772
      intwar |   -.014039   .0271613    -0.52   0.605    -.0674182    .0393401
      civwar |  -.0000137   .0170494    -0.00   0.999    -.0335202    .0334928
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar shcoup $t cyrs*   leadermil  loggdp logoil civwar intwar, ///
>                         nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f3 r3) deg($deg)    spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4207
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1790
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1764
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1867
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0329188     .00764    -4.31   0.000    -.0479326    -.017905
       time2 |   .0001492   .0000811     1.84   0.066    -.0000102    .0003086
        cyrs |   .0765958   .0084353     9.08   0.000     .0600191    .0931725
       cyrs2 |  -.0027705   .0004714    -5.88   0.000    -.0036969   -.0018442
       cyrs3 |   .0000351   6.85e-06     5.13   0.000     .0000217    .0000486
   leadermil |  -.1036956   .0731994    -1.42   0.157    -.2475447    .0401535
      loggdp |  -.0104557   .0368732    -0.28   0.777    -.0829177    .0620063
      logoil |  -.0254871     .02154    -1.18   0.237    -.0678167    .0168425
      civwar |  -.0005841   .0172544    -0.03   0.973    -.0344919    .0333237
      intwar |    -.01467   .0275922    -0.53   0.595    -.0688934    .0395534
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(384 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar shcoup  $t cyrs* lt G_age loggdp logoil intwar civwar, ///
>                         nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f4 r4) deg($deg)   spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1797
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1769
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1869
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0339861   .0079889    -4.25   0.000    -.0496865   -.0182858
       time2 |   .0001551   .0000831     1.87   0.063    -8.29e-06    .0003184
        cyrs |   .0737223   .0084934     8.68   0.000     .0570305    .0904141
       cyrs2 |  -.0026331   .0004672    -5.64   0.000    -.0035513   -.0017149
       cyrs3 |   .0000331   6.69e-06     4.94   0.000     .0000199    .0000462
          lt |   .0188217   .0135142     1.39   0.164    -.0077372    .0453806
       G_age |   .0002893   .0023927     0.12   0.904     -.004413    .0049916
      loggdp |  -.0130941   .0369074    -0.35   0.723    -.0856268    .0594386
      logoil |  -.0225722   .0211232    -1.07   0.286    -.0640849    .0189404
      intwar |  -.0125386   .0271154    -0.46   0.644    -.0658275    .0407504
      civwar |   .0000934   .0170607     0.01   0.996    -.0334352    .0336221
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar shcoup $t cyrs* lt G_age leadermil intwar civwar, ///
>                         nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f5 r5) deg($deg)   spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4297
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1877
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1853
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1853
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0366107   .0071452    -5.12   0.000    -.0506525    -.022569
       time2 |   .0001818   .0000784     2.32   0.021     .0000278    .0003358
        cyrs |   .0736885   .0083304     8.85   0.000     .0573178    .0900593
       cyrs2 |  -.0026021   .0004609    -5.65   0.000     -.003508   -.0016963
       cyrs3 |   .0000326   6.62e-06     4.93   0.000     .0000196    .0000456
          lt |   .0182319   .0135535     1.35   0.179    -.0084034    .0448672
       G_age |   .0002653   .0023936     0.11   0.912    -.0044386    .0049691
   leadermil |  -.0950478   .0740139    -1.28   0.200    -.2404993    .0504037
      intwar |  -.0132783   .0274976    -0.48   0.629    -.0673164    .0407599
      civwar |   .0003203   .0170694     0.02   0.985    -.0332242    .0338649
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(294 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar shcoup $t  cyrs* lt G_age leadermil  loggdp logoil, ///
>                         nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f6 r6) deg($deg)   spline

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1811
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1785
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1867
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0345497    .007788    -4.44   0.000    -.0498553   -.0192442
       time2 |   .0001619   .0000819     1.98   0.049     1.04e-06    .0003228
        cyrs |   .0740909     .00844     8.78   0.000      .057504    .0906777
       cyrs2 |  -.0026662   .0004672    -5.71   0.000    -.0035844    -.001748
       cyrs3 |   .0000337   6.75e-06     5.00   0.000     .0000205     .000047
          lt |   .0185227   .0138341     1.34   0.181    -.0086649    .0457103
       G_age |   .0001194   .0024178     0.05   0.961    -.0046322     .004871
   leadermil |  -.0952941    .073976    -1.29   0.198    -.2406762    .0500881
      loggdp |  -.0101285   .0370911    -0.27   0.785    -.0830222    .0627651
      logoil |  -.0235171   .0211289    -1.11   0.266     -.065041    .0180067
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yaxis(2)bin(50)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2)) ///
>                         ylab(0(0)0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line fSHb xpers,sort lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)) ///
>                         (line f1 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f2 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f3 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f4 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f5 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f6 xpers,ylab(-.08(.04).04)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort ///
>                         xtitle(Personalism score,height(4)) ytitle(Probability of Reshuffling coups)
>  ///
>                         title(Model specification adjustments) ///
>                         yline(0,lcol(red)lpat(dash)) ///
>                         legend(lab(1 "Personalism score") lab(2 "Full specification") ///
>                         lab(3 "Linear trend") lab(4 "Nonlinear trend") lab(5 "Omit leader variables"
> ) ///
>                         lab(6 "Omit regime variables") lab(7 "Omit GDPpc, Oil") lab(8 "Omit conflict
> ")  ///
>                         pos(6) col(3) ring(1)size(small) order(2 3 4 5 6 7 8))) 

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-E-8.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-8.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 drop f6 r6 f5 r5 f4 r4 f3 r3 f2 r2 f1 r1 

. 
.                         * Additional covariates in the specification *
.                 xi:qui xtsemipar shcoup  $t  cyrs* $x lpop,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f1 r
> 1) deg($deg) spline
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar shcoup  $t  cyrs* $x excluded,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(
> f2 r2)  deg($deg) spline
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar shcoup  $t  cyrs* $x legcomp,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f
> 3 r3)  deg($deg) spline
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar shcoup  $t  cyrs* $x nelda_inc,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen
> (f4 r4)  deg($deg) spline
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar shcoup  $t  cyrs* $x vkill3,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f5
>  r5)  deg($deg) spline
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar shcoup  $t  cyrs* $x lcyrs,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) gen(f6 
> r6)  deg($deg) spline
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar shcoup  $t  cyrs* $x nmc_logmilex,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3) 
> gen(f7 r7) deg($deg) spline
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 xi:qui xtsemipar shcoup  $t  cyrs* $x nmc_logmilper,nogr nonpar(xpers) cluster($id3)
>  gen(f8 r8) deg($deg) spline
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yaxis(2)bin(50)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2)) ///
>                         ylab(0(0)0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line fSHb xpers,sort col(cyan)lpat(solid)) ///
>                         (line f1 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f2 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f3 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f4 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f5 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f6 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f7 xpers, sort) ///
>                         (line f8 xpers,ylab(-.08(.04).04)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2)) sort ///
>                         xtitle(Personalism score,height(4)) ytitle(Probability of Reshuffle coups) /
> //
>                         title(Model specification adjustments) ///
>                         yline(0,lcol(red)lpat(dash)) ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "Baseline") lab(3 "Population") lab(4 "Ethnic exclusion") lab(5
>  "Leg comp") ///
>                          lab(6 "Election") lab(7 "Repression") lab(8 "Time since coup") ///
>                          lab(9 "Military spending") lab(10 "Military personnel")  ///
>                          pos(6) col(4) ring(1) order(2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10)))      

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-E-9.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-9.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 drop f8 r8 f7 r7 f6 r6 f5 r5 f4 r4 f3 r3 f2 r2 f1 r1 

.          
.                 * leave one out tests *
.                 gen iregion = 1 if cow<200
(3,981 missing values generated)

.                 replace iregion = 2 if cow>=200 & cow<400
(553 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 3 if cow>=400 & cow<500
(881 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 4 if cow>=500 & cow<600
(697 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 5 if cow>=600 & cow<700
(884 real changes made)

.                 replace iregion = 6 if cow>=700 
(966 real changes made)

.                 forval i=1(1)6 {
  2.                         xi:qui xtsemipar shcoup $t cyrs* $x if iregion~=`i',nogr nonpar(xpers) cl
> uster($id3) gen(f`i' r`i') deg($deg) spline
  3.                 }
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested
Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yaxis(2)bin(50)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))ylab(0(0
> )0,axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line fSHb xpers, sort col(cyan)lpat(solid)) ///
>                         (line f1 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f2 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f3 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f4 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f5 xpers,sort) ///
>                         (line f6 xpers,yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort ///
>                         xtitle(Personalism score,height(4)) ytitle(Probability of Reshuffle coups) /
> //
>                         title(Leave-one-out-region) ///
>                         yline(0,lcol(red)lpat(dash)) ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "All") lab(3 "Americas") lab(4 "Europe") lab(5 "Central/West Af
> rica") ///
>                          lab(6 "East/Southern Africa") lab(7 "MENA") lab(8 "Asia")  ///
>                          pos(6) col(3) ring(1) order(3 4 5 6 7 8 2)))   

.                 drop f6 r6 f5 r5 f4 r4 f3 r3 f2 r2 f1 r1 iregion*

.                 graph export "$plots\Figure-E-10.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-10.pdf written in PDF format)

.                 
.                  ************************
.                  *** Drop first years ***
.                  ************************
.                         use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                         xtset $id2 year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                         
.                         global y= "shcoup"

.                         global deg=3

.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t cyrs* if sample==1 & gwf_case_duration>1,nonpar($d)cluste
> r($id3)gen(fA rA)deg($deg) spline  knots1(.25 .6) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1835
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1820
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1853
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0345385    .007216    -4.79   0.000    -.0487185   -.0203584
       time2 |   .0001633   .0000776     2.10   0.036     .0000107    .0003158
        cyrs |   .0758858   .0083945     9.04   0.000     .0593897    .0923819
       cyrs2 |  -.0026624   .0004653    -5.72   0.000    -.0035767    -.001748
       cyrs3 |   .0000332   6.67e-06     4.98   0.000     .0000201    .0000463
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t cyrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(fA1 rA1)deg
> ($deg) spline  knots1(.25 .6) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1835
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1820
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1853
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0345385    .007216    -4.79   0.000    -.0487185   -.0203584
       time2 |   .0001633   .0000776     2.10   0.036     .0000107    .0003158
        cyrs |   .0758858   .0083945     9.04   0.000     .0593897    .0923819
       cyrs2 |  -.0026624   .0004653    -5.72   0.000    -.0035767    -.001748
       cyrs3 |   .0000332   6.67e-06     4.98   0.000     .0000201    .0000463
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 
.                         global y= "chcoup"

.                         global deg=3

.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t cyrs* if sample==1 & gwf_case_duration>1,nonpar($d)cluste
> r($id3)gen(fB rB)deg($deg) nogr spline 

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0805
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0788
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2198
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0089086   .0077548     1.15   0.251    -.0063305    .0241476
       time2 |  -.0000555   .0000896    -0.62   0.536    -.0002315    .0001205
        cyrs |   .0663425   .0092873     7.14   0.000      .048092     .084593
       cyrs2 |  -.0028897   .0005187    -5.57   0.000    -.0039091   -.0018704
       cyrs3 |   .0000326   7.16e-06     4.55   0.000     .0000185    .0000466
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t cyrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(fB1 rB1)deg
> ($deg) nogr spline 

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0805
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0788
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2198
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0089086   .0077548     1.15   0.251    -.0063305    .0241476
       time2 |  -.0000555   .0000896    -0.62   0.536    -.0002315    .0001205
        cyrs |   .0663425   .0092873     7.14   0.000      .048092     .084593
       cyrs2 |  -.0028897   .0005187    -5.57   0.000    -.0039091   -.0018704
       cyrs3 |   .0000326   7.16e-06     4.55   0.000     .0000185    .0000466
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


. 
.                         global y= "assa"

.                         global deg = 5

.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t ayrs* if sample==1 & gwf_case_duration>1,nonpar($d)cluste
> r($id3)gen(fC rC)deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3729
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3715
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1620
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0580836   .0058218    -9.98   0.000     -.069524   -.0466432
       time2 |   .0004521   .0000722     6.27   0.000     .0003103    .0005939
        ayrs |   .1248628   .0069914    17.86   0.000      .111124    .1386017
       ayrs2 |  -.0043717   .0003954   -11.06   0.000    -.0051488   -.0035946
       ayrs3 |   .0000483   5.61e-06     8.62   0.000     .0000373    .0000593
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                         xi:xtsemipar $y $t ayrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(fC1 rC1)deg
> ($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7) nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3729
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3715
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1620
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0580836   .0058218    -9.98   0.000     -.069524   -.0466432
       time2 |   .0004521   .0000722     6.27   0.000     .0003103    .0005939
        ayrs |   .1248628   .0069914    17.86   0.000      .111124    .1386017
       ayrs2 |  -.0043717   .0003954   -11.06   0.000    -.0051488   -.0035946
       ayrs3 |   .0000483   5.61e-06     8.62   0.000     .0000373    .0000593
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                                 
.                         twoway (line fA xpers,sort) (line fA1 xpers,sort saving(fit1.gph,replace) //
> /
>                                 legend(lab(1 "duration>1")lab(2 "all periods")pos(7)ring(0))tit(Resh
> uffle coups))                       
(file fit1.gph saved)

.                         twoway (line fB xpers,sort) (line fB1 xpers,sort saving(fit2.gph,replace) //
> /
>                                 legend(lab(1 "duration>1")lab(2 "all periods")pos(6)ring(0))tit(Regi
> me change coups))
(file fit2.gph saved)

.                         twoway (line fC xpers,sort) (line fC1 xpers,sort saving(fit3.gph,replace) //
> /
>                                 legend(lab(1 "duration>1")lab(2 "all periods")pos(5)ring(0))tit(Assa
> ssinations))
(note: file fit3.gph not found)
(file fit3.gph saved)

.                         gr combine fit1.gph fit2.gph fit3.gph, col(3) xsize(12)

.                         graph export "$plots\Figure-E-11.pdf", as(pdf)   replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-11.pdf written in PDF format)

.                         
. 
.         **********************************************************************
.         ***** Mis-specification tests and functional form tests **************
.         **********************************************************************
.                 use Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright,clear

.                 global bw= 3

.                 global id = "cow"

.                 global id2 = "gwf_caseid"

.                 global id3 = "gwf_leaderid"

.                 global t= "time time2"

.                 global d= "xpers"

.                 global x= "G_age lt leadermil loggdp logoil intwar civwar"

.                 global deg=5

.                                                                 
.                 irt   (2pl officepers  milnotrial sectyapp_pers paramil_pers createparty partyexcom_
> pers partyrbr milmerit_persB)  

Fitting fixed-effects model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -23035.849  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -22997.569  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -22997.553  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -22997.553  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -20828.284  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -20017.419  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -19974.228  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -19973.196  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -19973.195  

Two-parameter logistic model                    Number of obs     =      4,591
Log likelihood = -19973.195
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
officepers   |
     Discrim |   2.921602   .1555757    18.78   0.000     2.616679    3.226525
        Diff |  -.4188553   .0231397   -18.10   0.000    -.4642082   -.3735023
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
milnotrial   |
     Discrim |   1.542339   .0700374    22.02   0.000     1.405068    1.679609
        Diff |   .5122243   .0307219    16.67   0.000     .4520105    .5724381
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sectyapp_p~s |
     Discrim |   1.761824   .0784029    22.47   0.000     1.608157    1.915491
        Diff |  -.3322498   .0270871   -12.27   0.000    -.3853396     -.27916
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
paramil_pers |
     Discrim |   1.110757   .0555121    20.01   0.000     1.001956    1.219559
        Diff |   .6780585   .0411264    16.49   0.000     .5974522    .7586648
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
createparty  |
     Discrim |   1.241087   .0665562    18.65   0.000      1.11064    1.371535
        Diff |   1.616852   .0679982    23.78   0.000     1.483578    1.750126
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
partyexcom~s |
     Discrim |   2.144649   .1143903    18.75   0.000     1.920448     2.36885
        Diff |   .6072721   .0279155    21.75   0.000     .5525588    .6619854
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
partyrbrstmp |
     Discrim |   2.007297   .1049551    19.13   0.000     1.801589    2.213005
        Diff |   .6782352   .0298218    22.74   0.000     .6197856    .7366848
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
milmerit_p~B |
     Discrim |   1.356587   .0617551    21.97   0.000     1.235549    1.477625
        Diff |   .3108259   .0306734    10.13   0.000     .2507072    .3709445
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                 predict xp, ebmeans latent
(using 7 quadrature points)

.                 qui sum xp 

.                 replace xp = xp+abs(r(min))
(4,591 real changes made)

.                 sum xp

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
          xp |      4,591    1.323832    .8725611          0   3.142322

.                 gen xp2 = xp^2

. 
.                 local var = "G_age lt loggdp logoil"    

.                 foreach v of local var {
  2.                         gen sq`v'=`v'^2
  3.                 }
(13 missing values generated)
(106 missing values generated)
(81 missing values generated)

.  
.                 global d = "xpers"

.                 xtset gwf_caseid year
       panel variable:  gwf_caseid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1946 to 2010
                delta:  1 unit

.                 sort cowcod year

.                 save "$dir\temp-assassinations.dta",replace
(note: file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reprod
> uction\temp-assassinations.dta not found)
file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction\
> temp-assassinations.dta saved

. 
.                 xi:xtsemipar assa $t ayrs*   if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(aA rA)deg($deg)
>  spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3729
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3715
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1620
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0580836   .0058218    -9.98   0.000     -.069524   -.0466432
       time2 |   .0004521   .0000722     6.27   0.000     .0003103    .0005939
        ayrs |   .1248628   .0069914    17.86   0.000      .111124    .1386017
       ayrs2 |  -.0043717   .0003954   -11.06   0.000    -.0051488   -.0035946
       ayrs3 |   .0000483   5.61e-06     8.62   0.000     .0000373    .0000593
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar assa $t $x ayrs*   if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(aB rB)deg($d
> eg) spline knots2(.15 .7) nograph 

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3802
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3777
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1621
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0571658   .0060993    -9.37   0.000    -.0691525   -.0451791
       time2 |   .0004445   .0000747     5.95   0.000     .0002977    .0005912
       G_age |   .0007713   .0010361     0.74   0.457    -.0012649    .0028074
          lt |  -.0025039   .0058609    -0.43   0.669    -.0140221    .0090142
   leadermil |   .0128895   .0112825     1.14   0.254    -.0092835    .0350625
      loggdp |   .0190714   .0341536     0.56   0.577    -.0480495    .0861922
      logoil |  -.0936991   .0586441    -1.60   0.111    -.2089501    .0215519
      intwar |   .0980988   .0389553     2.52   0.012     .0215415    .1746562
      civwar |   .0263453   .0247072     1.07   0.287    -.0222108    .0749015
        ayrs |   .1262065   .0069572    18.14   0.000     .1125338    .1398791
       ayrs2 |  -.0044317   .0003917   -11.31   0.000    -.0052015   -.0036619
       ayrs3 |   .0000486   5.54e-06     8.78   0.000     .0000378    .0000595
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar assa $t $x sq* ayrs*  if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(aC rC)deg
> ($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.3820
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.3788
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1619
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        assa |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0562722   .0061701    -9.12   0.000    -.0683981   -.0441463
       time2 |   .0004293    .000076     5.65   0.000       .00028    .0005786
       G_age |   .0023967   .0030433     0.79   0.431    -.0035843    .0083776
          lt |  -.0069446   .0119962    -0.58   0.563    -.0305202     .016631
   leadermil |   .0112775    .011413     0.99   0.324    -.0111521    .0337071
      loggdp |  -.0196623   .0340659    -0.58   0.564    -.0866106     .047286
      logoil |  -.1232192   .0935762    -1.32   0.189    -.3071209    .0606826
      intwar |   .0980898   .0387074     2.53   0.012     .0220196    .1741601
      civwar |    .026014   .0246974     1.05   0.293    -.0225229    .0745508
     sqG_age |  -.0000171   .0000208    -0.82   0.411     -.000058    .0000238
        sqlt |   .0027791   .0044601     0.62   0.534    -.0059862    .0115443
    sqloggdp |   .0361501    .015691     2.30   0.022     .0053132     .066987
    sqlogoil |   .0049408    .015264     0.32   0.746    -.0250569    .0349385
        ayrs |   .1265139   .0069696    18.15   0.000     .1128168     .140211
       ayrs2 |  -.0044488   .0003929   -11.32   0.000     -.005221   -.0036765
       ayrs3 |   .0000488   5.59e-06     8.74   0.000     .0000378    .0000598
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar chcoup $t cyrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(chA rAch)deg($d
> eg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0815
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0794
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2197
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0087395   .0077351     1.13   0.259    -.0064607    .0239397
       time2 |  -.0000508   .0000893    -0.57   0.570    -.0002262    .0001246
        cyrs |   .0661331   .0092953     7.11   0.000     .0478669    .0843994
       cyrs2 |  -.0028819     .00052    -5.54   0.000    -.0039037   -.0018601
       cyrs3 |   .0000325   7.17e-06     4.53   0.000     .0000184    .0000466
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar chcoup $t $x cyrs*   if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(chB rBch)d
> eg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0898
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0861
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2200
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0100701   .0080633     1.25   0.212    -.0057763    .0259166
       time2 |  -.0000629   .0000897    -0.70   0.483    -.0002392    .0001133
       G_age |   .0035749   .0020033     1.78   0.075    -.0003622    .0075119
          lt |   -.030169   .0127447    -2.37   0.018    -.0552157   -.0051224
   leadermil |  -.0963517   .0570582    -1.69   0.092     -.208486    .0157826
      loggdp |  -.0273348   .0410296    -0.67   0.506    -.1079687    .0532991
      logoil |  -.0148799   .0294437    -0.51   0.614    -.0727445    .0429847
      intwar |   .0839759   .0409485     2.05   0.041     .0035015    .1644503
      civwar |  -.0085316   .0318991    -0.27   0.789    -.0712217    .0541585
        cyrs |   .0698621   .0096179     7.26   0.000     .0509605    .0887637
       cyrs2 |  -.0030323    .000532    -5.70   0.000    -.0040777   -.0019869
       cyrs3 |   .0000343   7.28e-06     4.71   0.000       .00002    .0000486
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar chcoup $t $x sq*   cyrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(chC rC
> ch)deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.0906
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.0860
                                                Root MSE             =  0.2200
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      chcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |   .0108305   .0081144     1.33   0.183    -.0051165    .0267774
       time2 |  -.0000627   .0000912    -0.69   0.492     -.000242    .0001166
       G_age |  -.0011222   .0055599    -0.20   0.840    -.0120489    .0098044
          lt |  -.0383212   .0210946    -1.82   0.070    -.0797776    .0031353
   leadermil |  -.0975293   .0569335    -1.71   0.087    -.2094186    .0143599
      loggdp |  -.0147647   .0455098    -0.32   0.746    -.1042033    .0746739
      logoil |   -.120753   .0838733    -1.44   0.151     -.285586    .0440801
      intwar |   .0829675   .0409973     2.02   0.044     .0023971    .1635379
      civwar |   -.009291   .0318941    -0.29   0.771    -.0719714    .0533893
     sqG_age |    .000039   .0000421     0.93   0.354    -.0000436    .0001217
        sqlt |   .0032081   .0082349     0.39   0.697    -.0129757    .0193919
    sqloggdp |  -.0095236   .0122843    -0.78   0.439    -.0336654    .0146182
    sqlogoil |   .0308795    .020943     1.47   0.141    -.0102789    .0720379
        cyrs |   .0707743   .0097629     7.25   0.000     .0515877    .0899608
       cyrs2 |   -.003099   .0005486    -5.65   0.000    -.0041772   -.0020208
       cyrs3 |   .0000351   7.52e-06     4.67   0.000     .0000203    .0000499
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar shcoup $t   cyrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(shA rAsh)deg(
> $deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4311
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1843
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1824
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1853
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0343957   .0071945    -4.78   0.000    -.0485336   -.0202578
       time2 |   .0001598    .000078     2.05   0.041     6.62e-06     .000313
        cyrs |   .0759102   .0083759     9.06   0.000     .0594507    .0923697
       cyrs2 |  -.0026571   .0004663    -5.70   0.000    -.0035734   -.0017408
       cyrs3 |   .0000332   6.68e-06     4.97   0.000     .0000201    .0000463
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(280 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar shcoup $t $x cyrs*   if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(shB rBsh)d
> eg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1817
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1784
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1868
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0344662   .0078066    -4.41   0.000    -.0498083   -.0191241
       time2 |   .0001591   .0000822     1.94   0.054    -2.42e-06    .0003206
       G_age |   .0000771   .0024212     0.03   0.975    -.0046812    .0048353
          lt |   .0185454   .0138207     1.34   0.180    -.0086158    .0457066
   leadermil |  -.0959604   .0721199    -1.33   0.184    -.2376948     .045774
      loggdp |   -.009086   .0369193    -0.25   0.806    -.0816422    .0634701
      logoil |  -.0241399   .0213427    -1.13   0.259    -.0660839    .0178042
      intwar |  -.0141788   .0273621    -0.52   0.605    -.0679525    .0395949
      civwar |   .0000316   .0171036     0.00   0.999    -.0335815    .0336447
        cyrs |   .0742283   .0084467     8.79   0.000     .0576283    .0908282
       cyrs2 |  -.0026719   .0004686    -5.70   0.000    -.0035929    -.001751
       cyrs3 |   .0000338   6.76e-06     5.00   0.000     .0000205    .0000471
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


.                 xi:xtsemipar shcoup $t $x sq*  cyrs* if sample==1,nonpar($d)cluster($id3)gen(shC rCs
> h)deg($deg) spline knots2(.15 .7)  nograph

                                                Number of obs        =    4193
                                                Within R-squared     =  0.1841
                                                Adj Within R-squared =  0.1800
                                                Root MSE             =  0.1866
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      shcoup |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        time |  -.0346723   .0078131    -4.44   0.000    -.0500271   -.0193175
       time2 |   .0001511    .000082     1.84   0.066    -.0000101    .0003124
       G_age |   .0116124    .007508     1.55   0.123    -.0031428    .0263677
          lt |   .0322776   .0199818     1.62   0.107    -.0069918     .071547
   leadermil |  -.0960248   .0707712    -1.36   0.176    -.2351086     .043059
      loggdp |  -.0345734   .0396343    -0.87   0.384    -.1124651    .0433183
      logoil |   -.059491    .055065    -1.08   0.281    -.1677082    .0487261
      intwar |  -.0146457    .027238    -0.54   0.591    -.0681754    .0388841
      civwar |   .0002579   .0167497     0.02   0.988    -.0326596    .0331753
     sqG_age |  -.0000976   .0000594    -1.64   0.101    -.0002143    .0000191
        sqlt |  -.0051317   .0078192    -0.66   0.512    -.0204984     .010235
    sqloggdp |   .0237701   .0126988     1.87   0.062    -.0011864    .0487266
    sqlogoil |    .008498   .0105906     0.80   0.423    -.0123152    .0293112
        cyrs |   .0723151   .0084298     8.58   0.000     .0557483     .088882
       cyrs2 |  -.0025335   .0004755    -5.33   0.000    -.0034679    -.001599
       cyrs3 |    .000032   6.86e-06     4.66   0.000     .0000185    .0000455
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(398 missing values generated)

Option spline is ignored since no graph is requested


Option knots2 is ignored since no graph is requested


. 
.                 ***************************************
.                 ******** Plots with residuals *********
.                 ***************************************
.                 twoway (scatter rA xpers  ,yaxis(2) yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))mcol(gs12)) ///
>                         (lpolyci rA xpers,level(95)degree(3)bw(.35)lcol(blue)lpat(solid)legend(off) 
> ///
>                         tit(Assassinations)xtit(Personalism)ytit(Residuals,axis(2)) ytit(Non-linear 
> fit,axis(1)) ///
>                         note("Residuals and fit scales are not adjusted & thus represent residuals f
> rom a linear" "probability model that yields negative predicted values", ///
>                         size(vsmall)pos(6))saving(h3.gph,replace))
(note: file h3.gph not found)
(file h3.gph saved)

.                 twoway (scatter rAsh xpers  ,yaxis(2) yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))mcol(gs12)) ///
>                         (lpolyci rAsh xpers,level(95)degree(3)bw(.35)lcol(blue)lpat(solid)legend(off
> ) ///
>                         tit(Reshuffling coups)xtit(Personalism)ytit(Residuals,axis(2)) ytit(Non-line
> ar fit,axis(1)) ///
>                         note("Residuals and fit scales are not adjusted & thus represent residuals f
> rom a linear" "probability model that yields negative predicted values", ///
>                         size(vsmall)pos(6))saving(h2.gph,replace))
(note: file h2.gph not found)
(file h2.gph saved)

.                 twoway (scatter rAch xpers  ,yaxis(2) yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))mcol(gs12)) ///
>                         (lpolyci rAch xpers,level(95)degree(3)bw(.35)lcol(blue)lpat(solid)legend(off
> ) ///
>                         tit(Regime change coups)xtit(Personalism)ytit(Residuals,axis(2)) ytit(Non-li
> near fit,axis(1)) ///
>                         note("Residuals and fit scales are not adjusted & thus represent residuals f
> rom a linear" "probability model that yields negative predicted values", ///
>                         size(vsmall)pos(6))saving(h1.gph,replace))
(note: file h1.gph not found)
(file h1.gph saved)

.                 gr combine h1.gph h2.gph h3.gph,col(3)xsize(8)ysize(3)

.                 gr export "$plots\Figure-E-12.pdf", as(pdf) replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-12.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
.                 qui sum assa

.                 global amean=r(mean)

.                 qui sum chcoup

.                 global cmean=r(mean)

.                 qui sum shcoup

.                 global smean=r(mean)

. 
.                 local var ="rA aA rB aB rC aC rAch chA rBch chB rCch chC rAsh shA rBsh shB rCsh shC"

.                 foreach v of local var {
  2.                         replace `v'=invlogit(`v')
  3.                 }
(4,567 real changes made)
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,567 real changes made)
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,567 real changes made)
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)

. 
.                 local var = "rA aA rB aB rC aC "

.                 foreach v of local var {
  2.                         qui sum `v'
  3.                         replace `v'=`v'-r(mean)+$amean
  4.                 }
(4,567 real changes made)
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)

. 
.                 local var = "rAch chA rBch chB rCch chC"

.                 foreach v of local var {
  2.                         qui sum `v'
  3.                         replace `v'=`v'-r(mean)+$cmean
  4.                 }
(4,567 real changes made)
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)

. 
.                 local var = "rAsh shA rBsh shB rCsh shC"

.                 foreach v of local var {
  2.                         qui sum `v'
  3.                         replace `v'=`v'-r(mean)+$smean
  4.                 }
(4,567 real changes made)
(4,311 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)
(4,451 real changes made)
(4,193 real changes made)

.                          
.                 * Misspecification tests *
.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)ylab(0(0
> )0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line aA xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (line aB xpers,lcol(red)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (line aC xpers,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort savin
> g(h3.gph,replace)  ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "no covariate adjustment")lab(3 "covariate adjustment")lab(4 "o
> ver-specified")order(2 3 4)pos(10)ring(0)) ///
>                         tit(Assassinations)ytit(Event probability)xtit(Personalism)ylab(.01(.01).03)
> )  
(file h3.gph saved)

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)ylab(0(0
> )0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line chA xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (line chB xpers,lcol(red)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (line chC xpers,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort savi
> ng(h1.gph,replace)    ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "no covariate adjustment")lab(3 "covariate adjustment")lab(4 "o
> ver-specified")order(2 3 4)pos(1)ring(0)) ///
>                         tit(Regime change coups)ytit(Event probability)xtit(Personalism) ylab(.02(.0
> 1).05))
(file h1.gph saved)

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)ylab(0(0
> )0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line shA xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (line shB xpers,lcol(red)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (line shC xpers,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort savi
> ng(h2.gph,replace)   ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "no covariate adjustment")lab(3 "covariate adjustment")lab(4 "o
> ver-specified")order(2 3 4)pos(1)ring(0)) ///
>                         tit(Reshuffling coups)ytit(Event probability)xtit(Personalism) ylab(.01(.01)
> .04) ) 
(file h2.gph saved)

.                 gr combine h1.gph h2.gph h3.gph,col(3)xsize(8)ysize(3)

.                 gr export "$plots\Figure-E-15.pdf", as(pdf) replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-15.pdf written in PDF format)

.                          
.                 * Estimate quadratic fit of residuals *
.                 qui reg rA xp xp2,cluster(gwf_leaderid) 

.                 qui predict hat_A,xb

.                 qui reg rAch xp xp2,cluster(gwf_leaderid) 

.                 qui predict hat_Ach,xb

.                 qui reg rAsh xp xp2,cluster(gwf_leaderid) 

.                 qui predict hat_Ash,xb

. 
.                  * Assassinations polynomial fit with CI *
.                  twoway (lpolyci rA xpers,level(95)degree(3)bw(.35)lcol(ltblue)lpat(solid) legend(la
> b(3 "Nonparametric fit")  ///
>                         lab(4 "Linear fit of residuals") lab(5 "Quadratic fit of residuals") lab(2 "
> Polynomial fit of residuals")   ///
>                         pos(4)ring(0)order(2 3 4 5))xtit(Personalism)ytit(Event probability)tit(Assa
> ssinations)saving(h3.gph,replace)) ///
>                         (line aA xpers,sort lpat(solid)lcol(magenta))(lfit rA xpers,lcol(green)lpat(
> solid)) ///
>                         (lpoly hat_A xpers,sort deg(2) lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)ylab(.005(.01).035)yline
> (.02,lcol(red)lpat(solid)))
(file h3.gph saved)

.                  * Reg change coups polynomial fit with CI *
.                  twoway (lpolyci rAch xpers,level(95)degree(3)bw(.3)lcol(ltblue)lpat(solid) legend(l
> ab(3 "Nonparametric fit")  ///
>                         lab(4 "Linear fit of residuals") lab(5 "Quadratic fit of residuals") lab(2 "
> Polynomial fit of residuals")   ///
>                         pos(7)ring(0)order(2 3 4 5))xtit(Personalism)ytit(Event probability)tit(Regi
> me change coups)saving(h1.gph,replace)) ///
>                         (line chA xpers,sort lpat(solid)lcol(magenta))(lfit rAch xpers,lcol(green)lp
> at(solid)) ///
>                         (lpoly hat_Ach xpers,sort deg(2) lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)ylab(.01(.01).06)yline
> (.041,lcol(red)lpat(solid)))
(file h1.gph saved)

.                  * Reshuffling coups polynomial fit with CI *
.                  twoway (lpolyci rAsh xpers,level(95)degree(3)bw(.3)lcol(ltblue)lpat(solid) legend(l
> ab(3 "Nonparametric fit")  ///
>                         lab(4 "Linear fit of residuals") lab(5 "Quadratic fit of residuals") lab(2 "
> Polynomial fit of residuals")   ///
>                         pos(7)ring(0)order(2 3 4 5))xtit(Personalism)ytit(Event probability)tit(Resh
> uffling coups)saving(h2.gph,replace)) ///
>                         (line shA xpers,sort lpat(solid)lcol(magenta))(lfit rAsh xpers,lcol(green)lp
> at(solid)) ///
>                         (lpoly hat_Ash xpers,sort deg(2) lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)ylab(.0(.01).04)yline(
> .025,lcol(red)lpat(solid)))
(file h2.gph saved)

.                 gr combine h1.gph h2.gph h3.gph,col(3)xsize(8)ysize(3)

.                 gr export "$plots\Figure-D-1.pdf", as(pdf) replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-D-1.pdf written in PDF format)

.                  
.                 gen xp3 = xp^3

.                 qui reg rAch xp xp2 xp3,cluster(gwf_leaderid)

.                 qui predict hat3_Ach,xb         

.                 twoway (scatter chA xpers if xpers<=.2,sort mcol(blue))  (line chA xpers if xpers<=.
> 2,sort lpat(solid) lcol(blue)) ///
>                         (scatter hat_Ach xpers if xpers<=.2,mcol(red)) (lpoly hat_Ach xpers if xpers
> <=.2,sort lcol(red)lpat(solid)deg(2)bw(.05))  ///
>                         (scatter hat3_Ach xpers if xpers<=.2,mcol(green)) (lpoly hat3_Ach xpers if x
> pers<=.2,sort lcol(green)lpat(solid)deg(2) ///
>                         bw(.1)legend(lab(2 "Semiparametric fit") lab(4 "Quadratic fit of residuals")
>  lab(6 "Cubic fit of residuals") ///
>                         order(2 4 6)pos(5)ring(0))ylab(.045(.005).055)ytit(Coup probability)xtit(Per
> sonalism))

.                  gr export "$plots\Figure-D-2.pdf", as(pdf) replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-D-2.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
. 
.         **************************************************
.         ***** Semiparametric by institutionalization *****
.         **************************************************
.                 egen minyr = min(year),by(gwf_caseid)

.                 gen fm = leadermil==1 if min==year
(4,311 missing values generated)

.                 egen firstmil = max(fm),by(gwf_caseid)   

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)ylab(0(0
> )0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line chA xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (lpoly rAch xpers if firstmil==1,degree(3)bw(.45)lcol(red)lpat(solid)yscale(
> alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (lpoly rAch xpers if firstmil==0,degree(3)bw(.45)lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)yscale
> (alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort saving(h1.gph,replace)    ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "Semiparametic fit (all)")lab(3 "Residual fit for military")lab
> (4 "Residual fit for non-military")order(2 3 4)pos(1)ring(0)) ///
>                         tit(Regime change coups)ytit(Event probability)xtit(Personalism) ylab(.02(.0
> 1).05))
(file h1.gph saved)

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)ylab(0(0
> )0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line shA xpers, lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) //
> /
>                         (lpoly rAsh xpers if firstmil==1,degree(3)bw(.45)lcol(red)lpat(solid)yscale(
> alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (lpoly rAsh xpers if firstmil==0,degree(3)bw(.5)lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)yscale(
> alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort saving(h2.gph,replace)    ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "Semiparametic fit (all)")lab(3 "Residual fit for military")lab
> (4 "Residual fit for non-military")order(2 3 4)pos(7)ring(0)) ///
>                         tit(Reshuffle coups)ytit(Event probability)xtit(Personalism) ylab(.0(.01).04
> ))
(file h2.gph saved)

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)ylab(0(0
> )0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line aA xpers, lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (lpoly rA xpers if firstmil==1,degree(3)bw(.45)lcol(red)lpat(solid)yscale(al
> t)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (lpoly rA xpers if firstmil==0,degree(3)bw(.45)lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)yscale(a
> lt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort saving(h3.gph,replace)    ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "Semiparametic fit (all)")lab(3 "Residual fit for military")lab
> (4 "Residual fit for non-military")order(2 3 4)pos(5)ring(0)) ///
>                         tit(Assassinations)ytit(Event probability)xtit(Personalism) ylab(.01(.01).03
> ))
(file h3.gph saved)

.                 gr combine h1.gph h2.gph h3.gph,col(3)xsize(8)ysize(3)

.                 gr export "$plots\Figure-E-13.pdf", as(pdf) replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-13.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)ylab(0(0
> )0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line chA xpers,lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (lpoly rAch xpers if inherit==1,degree(3)bw(.45)lcol(red)lpat(solid)yscale(a
> lt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (lpoly rAch xpers if inherit==0,degree(3)bw(.45)lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)yscale(
> alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort saving(h1.gph,replace)    ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "Semiparametic fit (all)")lab(3 "Residual fit for inherited par
> ty")lab(4 "Residual fit for non-party")order(2 3 4)pos(1)ring(0)) ///
>                         tit(Regime change coups)ytit(Event probability)xtit(Personalism) ylab(.02(.0
> 1).05))
(file h1.gph saved)

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)ylab(0(0
> )0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line shA xpers, lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) //
> /
>                         (lpoly rAsh xpers if inherit==1,degree(3)bw(.45)lcol(red)lpat(solid)yscale(a
> lt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (lpoly rAsh xpers if inherit==0,degree(3)bw(.5)lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)yscale(a
> lt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort saving(h2.gph,replace)    ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "Semiparametic fit (all)")lab(3 "Residual fit for inherited par
> ty")lab(4 "Residual fit for non-party")order(2 3 4)pos(7)ring(0)) ///
>                         tit(Reshuffle coups)ytit(Event probability)xtit(Personalism) ylab(.0(.01).04
> ))
(file h2.gph saved)

.                 twoway (hist xpers,freq col(gs14)yscale(range(0 2500)axis(2))yaxis(2)bin(50)ylab(0(0
> )0,nolabels axis(2)) ytitle("",axis(2))) ///
>                         (line aA xpers, lcol(blue)lpat(solid)yscale(alt)yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (lpoly rA xpers if inherit==1,degree(3)bw(.45)lcol(red)lpat(solid)yscale(alt
> )yscale(alt axis(2))sort) ///
>                         (lpoly rA xpers if inherit==0,degree(3)bw(.45)lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)yscale(al
> t)yscale(alt axis(2))sort saving(h3.gph,replace)    ///
>                         legend(lab(2 "Semiparametic fit (all)")lab(3 "Residual fit for inherited par
> ty")lab(4 "Residual fit for non-party")order(2 3 4)pos(5)ring(0)) ///
>                         tit(Assassinations)ytit(Event probability)xtit(Personalism) ylab(.01(.01).03
> ))
(file h3.gph saved)

.                 gr combine h1.gph h2.gph h3.gph,col(3)xsize(8)ysize(3)

.                 gr export "$plots\Figure-E-14.pdf", as(pdf) replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-E-14.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
.  
.         ************************************************************************************
.         ***************** Comparison with Gandhi-Sumner and Weeks data *********************
.         ************************************************************************************
.                 import excel "$dir\gandhi-sumner-estimates.xls" ,firstrow clear

.                 set scheme plotplain

.                 gen cowcode = .
(5,098 missing values generated)

.                 qui do cowcodes

.                 replace cowcode = 145 if country=="Bolivia, Plurinational State of"
(35 real changes made)

.                 replace cowcode = 265 if country=="German Democratic Republic"
(41 real changes made)

.                 replace cowcode = 713 if country=="Taiwan, Province of China"
(51 real changes made)

.                 replace cowcode = 680 if country=="Yemen People's Republic"  
(23 real changes made)

.                 tab country if cowcode==.

                               country |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
---------------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                            Cabo Verde |         16      100.00      100.00
---------------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                                 Total |         16      100.00

.                 drop if cowcode==.
(16 observations deleted)

.                 sort cowcode year 

.                 merge cowcode year using "Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright.dta"
(note: you are using old merge syntax; see [D] merge for new syntax)
(note: variable cowcode was float, now double to accommodate using data's values)
(note: variable year was int, now double to accommodate using data's values)

.                 tab _merge

     _merge |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          1 |        868       15.90       15.90
          2 |        377        6.91       22.81
          3 |      4,214       77.19      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      5,459      100.00

.                 rename _merge gwf_gs_merge

.                 sort cowcode year

.                 merge cowcode year using weeks
(note: you are using old merge syntax; see [D] merge for new syntax)
variables cowcode year do not uniquely identify observations in weeks.dta

.                 tab _merge

     _merge |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          1 |        934       11.43       11.43
          2 |      2,708       33.15       44.59
          3 |      4,526       55.41      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      8,168      100.00

.                 drop if _merge==2
(2,708 observations deleted)

.                 
.                 irt  (2pl officepers  milnotrial sectyapp_pers paramil_pers create partyrbr partyexc
> om_pers milmerit_persB)  

Fitting fixed-effects model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -23043.816  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -23005.537  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -23005.521  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -23005.521  

Fitting full model:

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -20833.104  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -20020.842  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -19977.654  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -19976.625  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -19976.625  

Two-parameter logistic model                    Number of obs     =      4,592
Log likelihood = -19976.625
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
officepers   |
     Discrim |   2.922003   .1555471    18.79   0.000     2.617136     3.22687
        Diff |  -.4190992   .0231367   -18.11   0.000    -.4644464    -.373752
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
milnotrial   |
     Discrim |   1.543707   .0700645    22.03   0.000     1.406383     1.68103
        Diff |   .5114006   .0306928    16.66   0.000     .4512439    .5715573
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sectyapp_p~s |
     Discrim |   1.762634   .0784172    22.48   0.000      1.60894    1.916329
        Diff |  -.3325174   .0270791   -12.28   0.000    -.3855916   -.2794433
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
paramil_pers |
     Discrim |   1.111923   .0555238    20.03   0.000     1.003098    1.220747
        Diff |   .6768783   .0410632    16.48   0.000     .5963959    .7573607
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
createparty  |
     Discrim |   1.243341   .0665883    18.67   0.000     1.112831    1.373852
        Diff |   1.613744   .0677604    23.82   0.000     1.480936    1.746552
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
partyrbrstmp |
     Discrim |   2.008623   .1049631    19.14   0.000     1.802899    2.214347
        Diff |   .6774234   .0297947    22.74   0.000     .6190269    .7358199
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
partyexcom~s |
     Discrim |    2.14584   .1143872    18.76   0.000     1.921645    2.370034
        Diff |   .6065487   .0278945    21.74   0.000     .5518765    .6612208
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
milmerit_p~B |
     Discrim |   1.357638   .0617709    21.98   0.000     1.236569    1.478707
        Diff |   .3101442   .0306501    10.12   0.000     .2500712    .3702173
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.                 predict xp if e(sample)==1,ebmeans latent
(using 7 quadrature points)
(868 missing values generated)

.                 qui sum xp

.                 replace xp = xp + abs(r(min))
(4,592 real changes made)

.                 gen gs = xhatmean
(377 missing values generated)

.                 qui sum gs 

.                 replace gs =gs + abs(r(min))
(5,083 real changes made)

.                 sum gs

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
          gs |      5,083    2.791424     1.23784          0    5.20477

.                 gen gs2 = gs^2
(377 missing values generated)

.                 qui sum xp

.                 replace xp = xp/(r(max))
(3,851 real changes made)

.                 qui sum xhatmean

.                 replace xhatmean =xhatmean+abs(r(min))
(5,083 real changes made)

.                 qui sum xhatmean

.                 replace xhatmean = xhatmean/(r(max))
(5,082 real changes made)

.                 sum xp xhatmean

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
          xp |      4,592    .4213937    .2777462          0          1
    xhatmean |      5,083    .5363204    .2378281          0          1

.                 qui sum 

.         
.                 qui reg xhatmean i.$id2

.                 qui predict hat_xhatmean if e(sample)==1,r

.                 qui reg xp i.$id2

.                 qui predict hat_xp if e(sample)==1,r

.                 qui reg persrat_1 i.$id2

.                 qui predict hat_weeks if e(sample)==1,r

.                 pwcorr hat_* 

             | hat_xh~n   hat_xp hat_we~s
-------------+---------------------------
hat_xhatmean |   1.0000 
      hat_xp |   0.0988   1.0000 
   hat_weeks |  -0.0418   0.2490   1.0000 

.                 pwcorr xhatmean xp persrat_1            

             | xhatmean       xp persra~1
-------------+---------------------------
    xhatmean |   1.0000 
          xp |   0.0880   1.0000 
   persrat_1 |   0.1781   0.5835   1.0000 

.                 sum xhatmean xp persrat_1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
    xhatmean |      5,083    .5363204    .2378281          0          1
          xp |      4,592    .4213937    .2777462          0          1
   persrat_1 |      2,628    .5407335    .4027053          0          1

.                 
.                 *************** Asia *************
.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if country=="China" & year>=1950,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)xti
> t("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if country=="China" & year>=1950,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Gandh
> i-Sumner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(1)ring(0)col(3)size(small))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(China,size(l
> arge))xlab(1950(10)2010))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if country=="China" & year>=1950,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)s
> aving(p1.gph,replace))
(note: file p1.gph not found)
(file p1.gph saved)

.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if cowcode==731,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)xtit("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if cowcode==731,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Gandhi-Sumner")lab(2 "
> GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(6)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(North Korea,size(large)
> )xlab(1950(10)2010))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if cowcode==731,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)saving(p2.gph,repl
> ace))
(note: file p2.gph not found)
(file p2.gph saved)

.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if  cowcode==816 & year>=1976,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)xtit("
> ")) ///
>                         (line xp year if  cowcode==816 & year>=1976,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Gandhi-S
> umner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(1)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(Vietnam,size(large))xla
> b(1980(10)2010))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if  cowcode==816 & year>=1976,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)savi
> ng(p3.gph,replace))
(note: file p3.gph not found)
(file p3.gph saved)

.                 *************** Africa *************
.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if country=="Sierra Leone" & year>=1950,lcol(red)ylab(0(.
> 2)1)xtit("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if country=="Sierra Leone" & year>=1950,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1
>  "Gandhi-Sumner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(1)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(Sierra Leone,size(large
> ))xlab(1970(10)2000))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if country=="Sierra Leone" & year>=1950,lcol(cyan)lpat(
> solid)saving(p4.gph,replace))
(note: file p4.gph not found)
(file p4.gph saved)

.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if country=="Togo" & year>=1950,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)xtit
> ("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if country=="Togo" & year>=1950,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Gandhi
> -Sumner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(5)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(Togo,size(large))xlab(1
> 960(10)2010))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if country=="Togo" & year>=1950,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)sa
> ving(p5.gph,replace))               
(note: file p5.gph not found)
(file p5.gph saved)

.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if country=="Congo" & year>=1950,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)xti
> t("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if country=="Congo" & year>=1950,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Gandh
> i-Sumner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(5)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(Congo,size(large))xlab(
> 1960(10)2010))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if country=="Togo" & year>=1950,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)sa
> ving(p6.gph,replace))       
(note: file p6.gph not found)
(file p6.gph saved)

.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if country=="Uganda" & year>=1950,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)xt
> it("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if country=="Uganda" & year>=1950,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Gand
> hi-Sumner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(5)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(Uganda,size(large))xlab
> (1960(10)2010))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if country=="Uganda" & year>=1950,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)
> saving(p7.gph,replace))     
(note: file p7.gph not found)
(file p7.gph saved)

.                 ********* Latin America ************ 
.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if country=="Paraguay" & year>=1950,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)
> xtit("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if country=="Paraguay" & year>=1950,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Ga
> ndhi-Sumner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(1)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(Paraguay,size(large))xl
> ab(1950(10)2000))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if country=="Paraguay" & year>=1950,lcol(cyan)lpat(soli
> d)saving(p8.gph,replace))   
(note: file p8.gph not found)
(file p8.gph saved)

.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if country=="Panama" & year>=1968,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)xt
> it("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if country=="Panama" & year>=1968,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Gand
> hi-Sumner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(11)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(Panama,size(large))xla
> b(1970(10)1990))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if country=="Panama" & year>=1968,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)
> saving(p9.gph,replace))     
(note: file p9.gph not found)
(file p9.gph saved)

.                 ********* Middle East ************
.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if country=="Libya" & year>=1946,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)xti
> t("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if country=="Libya" & year>=1946,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Gandh
> i-Sumner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(5)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(Libya,size(large))xlab(
> 1950(10)2010))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if country=="Libya" & year>=1946,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)s
> aving(p10.gph,replace))                     
(note: file p10.gph not found)
(file p10.gph saved)

.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if country=="Iraq" & year>=1946,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)xtit
> ("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if country=="Iraq" & year>=1946,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Gandhi
> -Sumner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(5)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(Iraq,size(large))xlab(1
> 950(10)2010))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if country=="Iraq" & year>=1946,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid)sa
> ving(p11.gph,replace))      
(note: file p11.gph not found)
(file p11.gph saved)

.                 twoway (line xhatmean year if country=="Tunisia" & year>=1946,lcol(red)ylab(0(.2)1)x
> tit("")) ///
>                         (line xp year if country=="Tunisia" & year>=1946,lcol(blue)legend(lab(1 "Gan
> dhi-Sumner")lab(2 "GWF")lab(3 "Weeks") ///
>                         pos(5)ring(0)col(1))ytit(Personalism)ylab(0(.2)1)tit(Tunisia,size(large))xla
> b(1960(10)2010))  ///
>                         (line persrat_1 year if country=="Tunisia" & year>=1946,lcol(cyan)lpat(solid
> )saving(p12.gph,replace))                   
(note: file p12.gph not found)
(file p12.gph saved)

.                 grc1leg p1.gph p6.gph p11.gph p10.gph p2.gph p9.gph p8.gph p4.gph p5.gph p12.gph p7.
> gph p3.gph,col(4) ///
>                         xsize(3)ysize(6)iscale(.5)

.             gr export "$plots\Figure-G-1.pdf", as(pdf) replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-G-1.pdf written in PDF format)

.          
.          
.          *****************************************************************
.          ****************  Simulations for selecting xc ******************
.          *****************************************************************
.                         global r=1000

.                         * test for Assassinations xc *
.                         use temp-assassinations,clear

.                         global x= "G_age lt leadermil loggdp logoil intwar civwar"

.                         global xmax=1

.                         gen test=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen xc=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen n =_n

.                         gen b1=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen b2=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen t1=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen t2=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         forval i = 1/$r {
  2.                                 global xc = `i'/$r
  3.                                 qui gen xlow1 = xpers-$xc if xpers<=$xc
  4.                                 qui replace xlow1=0 if xpers>$xc
  5.                                 qui gen xhigh1 =  xpers-$xc if xpers>$xc 
  6.                                 qui replace xhigh1=0 if xpers<=$xc 
  7.                                 qui gen hi1 = xpers>$xc         
  8.                                 qui gen xlow2=xpers-$xc if xpers<$xc
  9.                                 qui replace xlow2=0 if xpers>=$xc
 10.                                 qui gen xhigh2=xpers-$xc if xpers>=$xc
 11.                                 qui replace xhigh2=0 if xpers<$xc
 12.                                 qui gen hi2 = xpers>=$xc
 13.                                 qui tsset gwf_leaderid year
 14.                                 qui reghdfe assa ayrs*   xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(
> year gwf_caseid) cluster(gwf_leaderid year) 
 15.                                 qui nlcom _b[xlow1] ,post
 16.                                 mat b= e(b)
 17.                                 local b = b[1,1]
 18.                                 qui replace b1 = `b'  if n==`i'
 19.                                 qui reghdfe assa ayrs*  xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(y
> ear gwf_caseid) cluster(gwf_leaderid year) 
 20.                                 qui test xlow1==0
 21.                                 local r=r(p)
 22.                                 qui replace t1=`r' if n==`i'
 23.                                 qui test xhigh1==0,acc
 24.                                 qui local t1=r(p)
 25.                                 qui replace test=`t1' if n==`i' 
 26.                                 qui test xhigh1==0
 27.                                 local r=r(p)
 28.                                 qui replace t2=`r' if n==`i'
 29.                                 qui replace xc=$xc if n==`i'
 30.                                 qui reghdfe assa ayrs*   xlow2 xhigh2 hi2 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb(
> year gwf_caseid) cluster(gwf_leaderid year)  
 31.                                 qui nlcom _b[xhigh2] ,post
 32.                                 mat b= e(b)
 33.                                 local b = b[1,1]
 34.                                 qui replace b2 = `b' if n==`i'
 35.                                 qui drop  xlow* xhigh* hi*  
 36.                         }

.                         qui gen jtest  = ((t1^2+t2^2)^(.5))/2

.                         qui sum jtest if b1<0 & b2>0

.                         sum xc if jtest==r(min)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
          xc |          1        .135           .       .135       .135

.                         twoway (line t1 xc if b1<0 & b2>0,sort lcol(gs1)lpat(dash)) (line t2 xc if b
> 1<0 & b2>0,sort lcol(gs8)lpat(solid)) ///
>                                 (line test xc if b1<0 & b2>0,sort lcol(red)lpat(blue) title(Assassin
> ations) ylab(0(.2)1) saving(h1.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "1st line p-value")lab(2 "2nd linep-value") lab(3 "Join
> t p-value") lab(4 "Test") ///
>                                 size(small))ytit(p-value)xtit("x{sub:c}")subtitle("{&beta}{sub:1}<0;
>  {&beta}{sub:2}>0")) ///
>                                 (line jtest xc if b1<0 & b2>0,sort lcol(blue)lpat(solid))           
>             
(note:  named style blue not found in class linepattern, default attributes used)
(note:  named style blue not found in class linepattern, default attributes used)
(file h1.gph saved)

.                         
.                         * test for Regime chance coups xc *
.                         use temp-assassinations,clear

.                         global x= "G_age lt leadermil loggdp logoil intwar civwar"

.                         global xmax=1

.                         gen test=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen xc=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen n =_n

.                         gen b1=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen b2=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen t1=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         gen t2=.
(4,591 missing values generated)

.                         forval i = 1/$r {
  2.                                 global xc = `i'/$r
  3.                                 qui gen xlow1 = xpers-$xc if xpers<=$xc
  4.                                 qui replace xlow1=0 if xpers>$xc
  5.                                 qui gen xhigh1 =  xpers-$xc if xpers>$xc 
  6.                                 qui replace xhigh1=0 if xpers<=$xc 
  7.                                 qui gen hi1 = xpers>$xc         
  8.                                 qui gen xlow2=xpers-$xc if xpers<$xc
  9.                                 qui replace xlow2=0 if xpers>=$xc
 10.                                 qui gen xhigh2=xpers-$xc if xpers>=$xc
 11.                                 qui replace xhigh2=0 if xpers<$xc
 12.                                 qui gen hi2 = xpers>=$xc
 13.                                 qui tsset gwf_leaderid year
 14.                                 qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs*  xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb
> (year gwf_caseid) cluster(gwf_leaderid year) 
 15.                                 qui nlcom _b[xlow1] ,post
 16.                                 mat b= e(b)
 17.                                 local b = b[1,1]
 18.                                 qui replace b1 = `b'  if n==`i'
 19.                                 qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs*  xlow1 xhigh1 hi1 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb
> (year gwf_caseid) cluster(gwf_leaderid year) 
 20.                                 qui test xlow1==0
 21.                                 local r=r(p)
 22.                                 qui replace t1=`r' if n==`i'
 23.                                 qui test xhigh1==0,acc
 24.                                 qui local t1=r(p)
 25.                                 qui replace test=`t1' if n==`i' 
 26.                                 qui test xhigh1==0
 27.                                 local r=r(p)
 28.                                 qui replace t2=`r' if n==`i'
 29.                                 qui replace xc=$xc if n==`i'
 30.                                 qui reghdfe chcoup cyrs*  xlow2 xhigh2 hi2 if xpers<=$xmax,absorb
> (year gwf_caseid) cluster(gwf_leaderid year) 
 31.                                 qui nlcom _b[xhigh2] ,post
 32.                                 mat b= e(b)
 33.                                 local b = b[1,1]
 34.                                 qui replace b2 = `b' if n==`i'
 35.                                 qui drop  xlow* xhigh* hi*  
 36.                         }

.                         gen jtest  = ((t1^2+t2^2)^(.5))/2 
(3,592 missing values generated)

.                         qui sum jtest if b1>0 & b2<0

.                         sum xc if jtest==r(min)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
          xc |          1        .413           .       .413       .413

.                         qui sum test if b1>0 & b2<0

.                         sum xc if test==r(min)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
          xc |          1        .415           .       .415       .415

.                         qui sum t1 if b1>0 & b2<0

.                         sum xc if t1==r(min)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
          xc |          1        .251           .       .251       .251

.                         qui sum t2 if b1>0 & b2<0

.                         sum xc if t2==r(min)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
          xc |          1        .327           .       .327       .327

.                         twoway (line t1 xc if  b1>0 & b2<0,sort lcol(gs1)lpat(dash)) ///
>                                 (line t2 xc if   b1>0 & b2<0,sort lcol(gs8)lpat(solid)) ///
>                                 (line test xc if   b1>0 & b2<0,sort lcol(red)lpat(solid) title(Regim
> e change coups) ///
>                                 ylab(0(.2)1) saving(h2.gph,replace) ///
>                                 legend(lab(1 "1st line p-value")lab(2 "2nd line p-value")lab(3 "Join
> t p-value")lab(4 "Test") ///
>                                 size(small))ytit(p-value)xtit("x{sub:c}") subtitle("{&beta}{sub:1}>0
> ; {&beta}{sub:2}<0")) ///
>                                 (line jtest xc if   b1>0 & b2<0,sort lcol(blue)lpat(solid))
(file h2.gph saved)

.                                 
.                         gr combine h1.gph h2.gph,xsize(10)iscale(.8)note("test=(({it:p{sub:1}}{sup:2
> } + {it:p{sub:2}}{sup:2}){sup:0.5})/2",pos(6))
(note:  named style blue not found in class linepattern, default attributes used)
(note:  named style blue not found in class linepattern, default attributes used)

.                         gr export "$plots\Figure-D-3.pdf", as(pdf) replace
(file C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-reproduction
> \Figure-D-3.pdf written in PDF format)

.                         
.                         forval i=1/2 {
  2.                                 erase h`i'.gph
  3.                                 erase d`i'.gph
  4.                                 erase fit`i'.gph
  5.                                 erase fit`i'A.gph
  6.                                 erase fit`i'CH.gph
  7.                                 erase fit`i'SH.gph
  8.                                 erase fitT`i'A.gph
  9.                                 erase fitT`i'CH.gph
 10.                                 erase fitT`i'SH.gph
 11.                         }

.                         erase fit3.gph

.                         erase d3.gph

.                         erase h3.gph

.                         forval i=1/12 {
  2.                                 erase p`i'.gph
  3.                         }

. ***************************** The End  *********************************
.                         
.                         log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\jgw12\Dropbox\Research\Pers-Assasination\Text\CPS\Chin-Escriba-Song-Wright-repro
> duction\Personalism-Assassins.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  13 Apr 2021, 08:20:53
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
